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Overview: Mon, May 06

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
11:3013- and 26-wk bill auction$70 billion apiece
12:50Barkin (FOMC voter)On the economic outlook
13:00Williams (FOMC voter)Speaks at Milken Institute conference
15:00STRIPS dataApril data

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for May 6, 2024

     

    Last week’s Fed and Treasury announcements allowed us to do a lot of forecast housekeeping.  Net Treasury bill issuance between now and the end of September appears likely to be somewhat higher on balance and far more volatile from month to month than we had previously anticipated.  In addition, we discuss the implications of the unexpected increase in the Treasury’s September 30 TGA target and the Fed’s surprising MBS reinvestment guidance. 

Leadership

Ben Bernanke

Wed, March 20, 2013

In terms of term limits, I don't have a strong view on that. Different countries use different approaches. Of course, the president always has the option to reappoint or not reappoint Fed chairmen, and the Senate always has the option of confirming or not confirming. So in that respect, term limits are redundant. And, indeed, if you had term limits on the Fed chairman, that would be, I think, the only office in the federal government -- besides president and vice president -- that would have that restriction.

With that being said, again, I don't view this as a -- as a major issue, nor have I seen it actively discussed in -- in the Hill. Perhaps I've missed it. But I don't have a strong view about that.


Richard Fisher

Wed, May 28, 2008

Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker, two of Ben Bernanke’s linear ancestors as chairmen of the Federal Reserve, have been in the news quite a bit lately. Yet, we rarely hear about William McChesney Martin, a magnificent public servant who was Fed chairman during five presidencies and to this day holds the record for the longest tenure: 19 years.

Chairman Martin had a way with words. And he had a twinkle in his eye. It was Bill Martin who wisely and succinctly defined the Federal Reserve as having the unenviable task “to take away the punchbowl just as the party gets going.” He did himself one up when he received the Alfalfa Club’s nomination for the presidency of the United States. I suspect many here tonight have been to the annual Alfalfa dinner. It is one of the great institutions in Washington, D.C. Once a year, it holds a dinner devoted solely to poking fun at the political pretensions of the day. Tongue firmly in cheek, the club nominates a candidate to run for the presidency on the Alfalfa Party ticket. Of course, none of them ever win. Nominees are thenceforth known for evermore as members of the Stassen Society, named for Harold Stassen, who ran for president nine times and lost every time, then ran a tenth time on the Alfalfa ticket and lost again. The motto of the group is Veni, Vidi, Defici—“I came, I saw, I lost.”

Bill Martin was nominated to run and lose on the Alfalfa Party ticket in 1966, while serving as Fed chairman during Lyndon Johnson’s term. In his acceptance speech,[1] he announced that, given his proclivities as a central banker, he would take his cues from the German philosopher Goethe, “who said that people could endure anything except continual prosperity.” Therefore, Martin declared, he would adopt a platform proclaiming that as a president he planned to “make life endurable again by stamping out prosperity.”

“I shall conduct the administration of the country,” he said, “exactly as I have so successfully conducted the affairs of the Federal Reserve. To that end, I shall assemble the best brains that can be found…ask their advice on all matters…and completely confound them by following all their conflicting counsel.”

Richard Fisher

Wed, May 28, 2008

Ben has a charming sense of humor ... He is not only prodigiously smart, but I think that the best thing that happed to him is that he served on a school board in New Jersey ... It allows him to run a meeting with harmony and results.

From Q&A as reported by Market News International

Richard Fisher

Wed, May 28, 2008

I think he has been battled hardened. I think we all have been battle hardened. We found that the pipes in the great sprinkler system we call the economy were clogged  ... We needed to change our tool kit ... I think his pragmatic hardball approach has been very
productive.

From Q&A as reported by Market News International

Richard Fisher

Wed, May 28, 2008

Our deliberations are quite civil. I defy you to find any place in government that operates that efficiently ... I think perhaps it is the last deliberative body that is totally civil.  
...
I don't ever feel restrained speaking as a Federal Reserve official. I don't have to clear my speeches ... I think that's unique.

From Q&A as reported by Market News International

Timothy Geithner

Tue, May 27, 2008

Timothy F. Geithner, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and a close Bernanke ally, defines the Fed chief’s “doctrine” as the overpowering use of monetary policies and lending to avert an economic collapse. “Ben has, in very consequential ways, altered the framework for how central banks operate in crises,” he said. “Some will criticize it and some will praise it, and it will certainly be examined for decades.”

Richard Fisher

Tue, May 27, 2008

I am tempted to think of him as somewhat Buddha-like. He’s developed a serenity based on a growing understanding of the hardball ways the system actually works. You can see that it’s no longer an academic or theoretical exercise for him.

Charles Plosser

Tue, May 27, 2008

These new facilities are Ben’s initiatives. He has been willing to take a fresh look at how the system works and press the boundaries in a thoughtful way.

Alan Blinder

Tue, May 27, 2008

Ben is one of these guys who is outwardly calm and has inner stomachaches.

He’s under a tremendous amount of strain.

William Poole

Thu, April 24, 2008

To start with, central bank credibility and low and stable inflation expectations are of critical importance. Earning that confidence is the most important thing the Fed can do in dealing with shocks as they occur. If the Fed doesn’t have that underlying confidence, then all sorts of things can go wrong and, indeed, the Fed may find itself willy-nilly taking policy actions intended to maintain or restore credibility rather than dealing with the current problem, whatever it might be. So, most of the work in dealing with the crises comes before they even happen. Where the Fed is now is a consequence of earning that credibility starting with Paul Volcker and then dealing successfully with a whole series of issues during the Volcker, Greenspan and now Bernanke eras.

Richard Fisher

Mon, April 21, 2008

The thing that I admire about Ben [Bernanke] is that right away – without a nanosecond’s time — he was thinking through these issues that I think should’ve been thought through before. But they weren’t; there were other priorities. The question is: what is the efficacy of further rate cuts?

Richard Fisher

Thu, April 17, 2008

I especially appreciate Charlie’s mentioning my modest book collection. Part of that collection consists of documents and writings of British prime ministers. One of my favorites is Gladstone. He used to say that “only love has made more fools of men than contemplating the nature of money.” Yet, that is precisely what Charlie Evans and I and Ben Bernanke and our colleagues at the Federal Reserve do: We spend practically every waking hour contemplating the nature of money and the proper shape and conduct of our monetary system. So if you detect an air of distraction in Charlie Evans now and then, be kind. He has not gone mad or foolish on us; he is just hard at work noodling through our predicament and conjuring up Chicago’s recommendations on what we at the Federal Open Market Committee should do.

Jeffrey Lacker

Tue, February 05, 2008

Lacker said he hasn't noticed a change in the way dissents are viewed under Bernanke, compared to previous Fed chief Alan Greenspan. "I haven't sensed any shift in that regard," Lacker said.

Because the Fed faces significant inflation risks as well as economic weakness, FOMC members may have differences of opinion about the best policy response. Lacker said the Fed's discussions tackle those considerations responsibly. "A lot of people have remarked he [Bernanke] has a very collegial style. I think the committee's quite cohesive in its functioning," Lacker said.

From press Q&A, as reported by Market News International

Donald Kohn

Fri, January 04, 2008

To be sure, the Committee looks to the Chairman to provide strong leadership.  The Chairman's special role is partly legal and structural--as the chair of the Board and the Committee and as the Committee's representative in front of Congress where the FOMC is held accountable for its actions... But in my experience, the other members of the Committee are also important for good policy.  Effective Chairmen cannot operate independently of the sentiment on the Committee; ultimately, the authority of the Chairman rests on his ability to persuade the other members of the Committee that the choices they are making under his leadership will accomplish their objectives.  The better the collection of individuals he needs to persuade, the better the policy is likely to be. 

...

Could the functioning of the FOMC be improved?  Certainly, and Chairman Bernanke has moved to further utilize the diverse views of the FOMC members, while maintaining the leadership necessary to keep this diverse group headed in the appropriate direction. 

MMO Analysis