Overview: Tue, July 16

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:15Bostic (FOMC non-voter)Moderates Fed Listens event
08:15Bowman (FOMC voter)Introductory remarks at Fed Listens event
08:30Retail salesLower gasoline prices offset gains in other sectors
08:30Import pricesBig decline, led by lower prices for imported fuels
08:30FRBNY business leaders surveyJuly service sector activity
09:15Industrial productionFactory gains largely offset by drops in mining and utilities
10:00Business inventories0.4% increase expected in May
10:00NAHB indexUptick seems likely this month
11:001- and 2-month bill announcementNo changes expected
11:30Year-bill auctionUnchanged at $26 billion
12:20Kaplan (FOMC non-voter)At NABE conference
13:00PowellAt Bank of France dinner
14:00Fed disc rate minutesMultiple rate cut requests for the first time in this cycle
15:30Evans (FOMC voter)In Chicago
16:00Tsy intl cap flowsMay data

US Economy

  • Economic Indicator Preview for Tuesday, July 16, 2019

    Core sales are likely to hold up adequately in the June retail sales report, but overall sales will be pulled down by the sharp decline in gasoline prices in the month.  Imported fuel prices are likely to pull the headline import price for June index down sharply.  However, we look for a moderate drop in core prices as well.  We estimate that overall industrial production edged up 0.1% in June.  Our guess is that the homebuilders index will rise one point in July to a level of 65.

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for July 15, 2019

    This week’s newsletter has three distinct sections.  The Treasury on Friday bumped the debt ceiling up to the top of the agenda by sending Congress a letter flagging the possibility that the government might run out of cash earlier than expected.  On the Fed policy front, Chair Powell’s congressional testimony reinforced market expectations of a quarter-point rate cut at the end of the month.  In that context, we take a look at last week’s market speculation that the Fed might also tweak the IOER within the target range again at this meeting.  Finally, the minutes of the June FOMC meeting reported an extensive (and, for now, inconclusive) discussion of the pros and cons of a standing repo facility.

MMO Analysis