The recent softening of the SOFR fixings has prompted speculation in the market that the Fed might try to put a floor under repo rates as well unsecured interbank rates.  That seems highly unlikely.  The Fed’s target range applies to the fed funds rate rather than SOFR, and the Fed is well aware of the operational complications that could arise if it took responsibility for keeping both rates within the same target range.  Separately, we have updated our bill supply forecasts in light of the results of the June tax season.  We now think bill supplies are likely to bottom out in late July rather than early August, but we continue to think the subsequent rebound will be modest.