The assumption of one more 2023 rate hike in last week’s dot plot was predicated in part on the Fed’s pessimistic inflation projections for the remainder of this year.  If we get through the annual revisions to the PCE price index on Thursday and the new August monthly inflation data on Friday this week without any disappointments, the risk of a final tightening may seem more remote.  Separately, this week’s newsletter also looks at a handful of Treasury finance topics:  the FDIC’s unexpected mid-September loan repayment to the Fed, softness in September quarterly taxes and the massive federal student loan accounting adjustment that resulted in an artificial budget surplus in August.