| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 08:45 | Williams (FOMC voter) | Opening remarks at finance forum |
| 09:00 | S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI | Moderate rise in April |
| 09:00 | FHFA house price index | 87th straight monthly increase in April |
| 10:00 | Consumer confidence | Modest pullback from last month's high level |
| 10:00 | 2019 Long-term budget outlook | CBO's long-term projections |
| 10:00 | Retail sales revisions | New seasonal factors |
| 10:00 | New home sales | Moderate correction expected in May |
| 10:00 | Richmond Fed index | Mild decline likely this month |
| 11:00 | 1- and 2-month bill announcement | No changes expected |
| 12:00 | Bostic (FOMC non-voter) | On FRB Atlanta housing panel |
| 13:00 | 2-yr note auction | 7th consecutive $40 billion offering |
| 13:00 | Powell | At Council on Foreign Relations |
| 14:30 | Fed small-value agency MBS sale test operation | Routine test exercise |
| 15:30 | Barkin (FOMC non-voter) | At University of Ottawa |
| 18:30 | Bullard (FOMC voter) | Opening remarks at FRB St. Louis economics lecture |
Economic Indicator Preview for Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Both the Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes seem likely to post routine increases in April. Our assumption is that the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index will pull back modestly but remain in very solid territory in June. New home sales have run above the level implied by the more reliable permits data for the past several months, and we look for a moderate decline in May. We think the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey will remain above breakeven in ISM-weighted terms this month.
Treasury Highlights for Tuesday, June 25, 2019
Today’s bill announcements: 1- and 2-month bills
Today’s coupon auction: 2-year notes
It’s not inconceivable that the economic data in the weeks ahead might keep the FOMC on hold at its July 31 meeting; it’s just really unlikely. Last week's Fed communications suggested that upcoming developments – political and economic – would have to be encouraging enough to dispel most of the uncertainties that have emerged over the past month or so, and that’s a tall order. We now think the Fed is likely to deliver an insurance rate cut in July (size TBD). If the Fed does ease on July 31, it is likely to terminate its portfolio runoffs early as well, which would reduce the Treasury’s market borrowing requirement in the short run. We have revised our Q3 bill supply forecasts downward accordingly.
