Overview: Tue, June 25

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:45Williams (FOMC voter)Opening remarks at finance forum
09:00S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller HPI Moderate rise in April
09:00FHFA house price index87th straight monthly increase in April
10:00Consumer confidenceModest pullback from last month's high level
10:002019 Long-term budget outlookCBO's long-term projections
10:00Retail sales revisionsNew seasonal factors
10:00New home salesModerate correction expected in May
10:00Richmond Fed indexMild decline likely this month
11:001- and 2-month bill announcementNo changes expected
12:00Bostic (FOMC non-voter)On FRB Atlanta housing panel
13:002-yr note auction7th consecutive $40 billion offering
13:00PowellAt Council on Foreign Relations
14:30Fed small-value agency MBS sale test operationRoutine test exercise
15:30Barkin (FOMC non-voter)At University of Ottawa
18:30Bullard (FOMC voter)Opening remarks at FRB St. Louis economics lecture

US Economy

  • Economic Indicator Preview for Tuesday, June 25, 2019

    Both the Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes seem likely to post routine increases in April.  Our assumption is that the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index will pull back modestly but remain in very solid territory in June.  New home sales have run above the level implied by the more reliable permits data for the past several months, and we look for a moderate decline in May.  We think the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey will remain above breakeven in ISM-weighted terms this month.

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for June 24, 2019

    It’s not inconceivable that the economic data in the weeks ahead might keep the FOMC on hold at its July 31 meeting; it’s just really unlikely.  Last week's Fed communications suggested that upcoming developments – political and economic – would have to be encouraging enough to dispel most of the uncertainties that have emerged over the past month or so, and that’s a tall order.  We now think the Fed is likely to deliver an insurance rate cut in July (size TBD).  If the Fed does ease on July 31, it is likely to terminate  its portfolio runoffs early as well, which would reduce the Treasury’s market borrowing requirement in the short run.  We have revised our Q3 bill supply forecasts downward accordingly.

MMO Analysis