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Overview: Wed, June 12

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
07:00MBA mortgage prch. indexTrending lower the last two months
08:30CPIHeadline index should be held down by lower energy costs
11:3017-wk bill auction$60 billion offering
14:00FOMC meeting announcementNo change in the stance of policy
14:00FOMC economic projectionsThe dot plot is likely to show two rate cuts for this year
14:00US budgetCBO estimates a deficit of $348 billion in May
14:30FOMC press conferenceThe timing of the first rate cut is still an open question

Intraday Updates

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for June 10, 2024

     

    Last week’s economic data left the Fed firmly on hold for the time being.  Friday’s employment data didn’t change our outlook very much as we had thought the overhang of unfilled job vacancies would keep payroll growth relatively firm in the near term.  Frankly, the most impactful surprise in the labor market data last week in our view was the unexpected decline in job openings in Tuesday’s JOLTS report, which suggested that labor market pressures are easing faster than we had anticipated.  However, the Fed needs to see more progress on inflation before it begins to cut rates.  We expect this week’s dot plot to indicate that FOMC members anticipate two rate cuts at most this year, with a sizable minority looking for just one cut – or none.

MMO Analysis