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Overview: Fri, January 17

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30Housing startsSmall increase, concentrated in single-family sector
09:00Harker (FOMC voter)On the economic outlook
09:15Industrial productionSlight decline overall despite jump in auto production
10:00JOLTS openingsClose to recent average in November
10:00U. Michigan cons. sent., earlyFlat or slightly higher in early January
11:00Fed outright Treasury bill purchase$7.5 billion purchase of Treasury bills
12:00Tsy dealer meeting agendaFocus on the Treasury's 20-year bond plans

US Economy

  • Economic Indicator Preview for Friday, January 17, 2020

    We expect this morning’s residential construction report to show housing starts up slightly and permits roughly flat in December.  Most of the components of the industrial production index should be quite soft in December, with the major exception being motor vehicle and parts.  Our guess is that the overall index will be slightly negative.  We think the main aggregates in the JOLTS report will move sideways over the near term, and our forecasts for both job openings and quits are close to the averages for the past three months.  Early indications are that household sentiment measures (including the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index) will remain buoyant in January.

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for January 13, 2020

    We expect no major surprises in the Fed’s monthly open market operations announcement on Tuesday afternoon.  The Desk may make token reductions in the maximum offering sizes of its repo operations, but these are unlikely to be a significant constraint on dealer borrowing from the Fed over the coming monthly cycle.

MMO Analysis