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Overview: Thu, April 15

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30Retail salesBig increase in March
08:30Phila. Fed mfg surveySome pullback from last month's extremely high readings
08:30Empire State mfgLittle change expected this month
08:30Jobless claimsPartial reversal of recent increases
09:15Industrial productionStrong rebound in March
10:00Business inventories0.5% increase in February
10:00NAHB indexUnchanged at high level this month
11:005-yr TIPS and 20-yr bond (r) announcement$2 billion increase in the TIPS offering expected
11:003- and 6-month and year-bill announcementNo changes expected
11:006-week CMB announcementNo changes expected
11:301- and 2-month bill auction$40 billion apiece
11:30Bostic (FOMC voter)Discusses economic inequality
14:00Daly (FOMC voter)On financial stability and monetary policy
14:00Logan (FOMC non-voter)Gives speech on impact of abundant reserves on policy
16:00Mester (FOMC non-voter)On economic inclusion
16:00Tsy intl cap flowsFebruary data

US Economy

  • Economic Indicator Preview for Thursday, April 15, 2021

    March retail sales, this month’s first two regional factory surveys (Empire State and Philadelphia) and the weekly jobless claims report are all due at 8:30 this morning.  March industrial production is scheduled for 9:15, and the April NAHB housing market index will round things out at 10:00.

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for April 12, 2021

    Last week’s FOMC minutes affirmed once again that the Fed has an open mind about the possibility of tweaking its ON RRP rate to strengthen the floor under the overnight market.  Separately, the head of the Fed’s Open Market Desk on Thursday discussed some upcoming technical adjustments to the Fed’s outright Treasury purchases.  The comments from the Desk highlighted the role of the new 20-year bond auction cycle in altering the composition of the existing supply of Treasury coupons, which led to some market speculation that the Fed might increase its allocations to that sector.  We think the opposite is the case.  The Fed’s recent operations have over-weighted the 20-year sector in practice, and a neutral realignment would re-direct some QE purchases to the 7- to 10-year sector.

MMO Analysis