|Memorial Day Holiday|
We expect the year-over-year change in both the FHFA and Case-Shiller home price indexes to move lower in this morning’s March reports. Our assumption is that the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index will hold steady at a strong level in the latest month. We look for a modest rebound in the latest Dallas Fed manufacturing survey.
Today’s bill announcements: 1- and 2-month bills
Today’s bill auctions: 3- and 6-month bills
Today’s coupon auctions: 2- and 5-year notes
It turns out that we were not sufficiently skeptical about the surprising shift in the maturity structure of foreign holdings of Treasury securities discussed in last week’s newsletter. The Treasury published a correction to the data on Wednesday, which we summarize in this week’s newsletter. This issue also briefly looks at the geographic distribution of foreign holdings of TIPS (which are rising) and Treasury FRNs (which are not). Finally, we have included our regular quarterly chartbook of foreign holdings of reserve balances as of March 31.