|08:30||Retail sales||Solid increase likely but lots of uncertainty|
|08:30||Import prices||Solid gain overall despite slightly softer fuel prices|
|09:15||Industrial production||Moderate April increase expected|
|10:00||U. Michigan cons. sent., early||May level off this month|
|10:00||Business inventories||0.3% rise in March|
|13:00||Kaplan (FOMC non-voter)||Takes part in virtual discussion|
April data for retail sales and import prices will be released at 8:30 this morning, and the April industrial production report is due at 9:15. This month’s preliminary reading for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will follow at 10:00.
Today's Treasury coupon purchase schedule:
This week’s newsletter expands upon our initial comments about the Treasury’s quarterly financing announcements from last week. The bill issuance outlook for the spring and summer remains hazy due to the uncertainty about the government’s cash flows in the months ahead, but the Treasury’s strategy for dealing with that uncertainty is clearer than it was before. At this point, it seems likely that weekly bill paydowns will continue at something like their current pace through the end of May, but bill issuance could turn temporarily positive in June.
Looking ahead, life will become more challenging for the Treasury after the debt ceiling comes back into effect. The Treasury will have to start making compromises on its precautionary cash balance guidelines in August, and will face increasingly severe operating constraints in subsequent months.