| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 08:15 | Bostic (FOMC non-voter) | Moderates Fed Listens event |
| 08:15 | Bowman (FOMC voter) | Introductory remarks at Fed Listens event |
| 08:30 | Retail sales | Lower gasoline prices offset gains in other sectors |
| 08:30 | Import prices | Big decline, led by lower prices for imported fuels |
| 08:30 | FRBNY business leaders survey | July service sector activity |
| 09:15 | Industrial production | Factory gains largely offset by drops in mining and utilities |
| 10:00 | Business inventories | 0.4% increase expected in May |
| 10:00 | NAHB index | Uptick seems likely this month |
| 11:00 | 1- and 2-month bill announcement | No changes expected |
| 11:30 | Year-bill auction | Unchanged at $26 billion |
| 12:20 | Kaplan (FOMC non-voter) | At NABE conference |
| 13:00 | Powell | At Bank of France dinner |
| 14:00 | Fed disc rate minutes | Multiple rate cut requests for the first time in this cycle |
| 15:30 | Evans (FOMC voter) | In Chicago |
| 16:00 | Tsy intl cap flows | May data |
Economic Indicator Preview for Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Core sales are likely to hold up adequately in the June retail sales report, but overall sales will be pulled down by the sharp decline in gasoline prices in the month. Imported fuel prices are likely to pull the headline import price for June index down sharply. However, we look for a moderate drop in core prices as well. We estimate that overall industrial production edged up 0.1% in June. Our guess is that the homebuilders index will rise one point in July to a level of 65.
Treasury Highlight for Tuesday, July 16, 2019
Today’s bill announcements: 1- and 2-month bills
Today’s bill auction: year-bills
This week’s newsletter has three distinct sections. The Treasury on Friday bumped the debt ceiling up to the top of the agenda by sending Congress a letter flagging the possibility that the government might run out of cash earlier than expected. On the Fed policy front, Chair Powell’s congressional testimony reinforced market expectations of a quarter-point rate cut at the end of the month. In that context, we take a look at last week’s market speculation that the Fed might also tweak the IOER within the target range again at this meeting. Finally, the minutes of the June FOMC meeting reported an extensive (and, for now, inconclusive) discussion of the pros and cons of a standing repo facility.
