|08:30||International trade||Narrower deficit in February|
|08:30||Jobless claims||Another huge increase in the latest week|
|10:00||Factory orders||Roughly flat in February|
|11:00||3-yr, 10-yr (r) and 30-yr (r) coupon announcement||No changes expected|
|11:00||3- and 6-month bill announcement||Increases expected|
|11:30||1- and 2-month bill auction||$80 billion and $60 billion respectively|
|13:00||Treasury CMB auctions||$40 billion of 154-day bills and $40 billion of 102-day bills|
Our unscientific estimate for initial claims this week is 5 million, versus 3.3 million in last week’s report. The full international trade report for February is also due out at 8:30 this morning.
Today's updated operational schedule:
Treasury Coupon Purchases
11:00 am: 3- and 6-month bill announcements
11:00 am: 3-year note; 10-year and 30-year reopenings announcements
11:30 am: 1- and 2-month bill auctions
1:00 pm: 102-day and 154-day CMB auctions
This week’s MMO is the latest iteration (but, unfortunately, probably not the last) in our ongoing series of updated Treasury financing forecasts. The bottom line is that bill issuance in Q2 will be massive but not unmanageable, and that the Treasury can (if it wants) wait until the second half of the year before making decisions about how quickly to increase its coupon offering sizes.