| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | GDP | Solid increase in Q4, led by consumption and inventories |
| 08:30 | Durable goods | Slight decline expected in December |
| 08:30 | Jobless claims | Down a little in latest week, but still well above December lows |
| 10:00 | Pending home sales | Moderate decline seems likely in December |
| 11:00 | Kansas City Fed index | Slight pullback this month, in line with other regional surveys |
| 11:00 | 3- and 6-month bill announcement | No changes expected |
| 11:30 | 1- and 2-month bill auction | $50 billion and $40 billion respectively |
| 13:00 | 7-yr note auction | $53 billion offering |
Economic Indicator Preview for Thursday, January 27, 2022
The advance estimate of Q4 GDP, durable goods for December and the weekly jobless claims numbers are all due at 8:30 this morning. December pending home sales will come out at 10:00, and this month’s Kansas City Fed factory survey will be released at 11:00.
Fed Highlights for Thursday, January 27, 2022
Today's Treasury coupon purchase schedule:
Treasury Highlights for Thursday, January 27, 2022
The FOMC won’t raise its funds rate target at this week’s FOMC meeting, but it will set the stage for doing so in March. This week’s newsletter sketches out our very low-conviction base case for Fed policy (liftoff in March, runoffs in August), as well as a couple of topics that were widely discussed in the market last week (the risk of a 50-bp rate hike in March and an early end to the taper this month rather than next). It also covers one subject that was not widely discussed last week – the possibility of a shift in the Fed’s interim reinvestment protocols from MBS into Treasuries. We still think this is a likely outcome, but we’re very much an outlier on the topic.
