We don’t know how many concrete surprises there will be in Kevin Warsh’s inaugural press conference this week but, at a minimum, his comments are likely to set the stylistic tone for his chairmanship.  We may learn more about how aggressive he intends to be in pursuing his reform agenda in the early days of his term.  On the near-term policy front, it seems overwhelmingly likely that the FOMC will remove the outdated easing bias from its policy statement on Wednesday but will not suggest that it is on the verge of flipping to a bias to tighten.  As noted before, we share the current market view that economic conditions are likely to lead to a rate hike before the end of the year, but we suspect that only a few FOMC members are likely to embrace that as their base case at this early juncture.