Last week’s FOMC minutes did not change the near-term policy outlook significantly but did document a pivot to “scenario analysis” in the way the FOMC is framing its discussions.  We expect this to be a more prominent feature in Fed communications going forward.  Also, the Fed will announce its monthly bill purchase schedule for the July-August cycle on Monday.  We look for an unchanged $10 billion of “reserve management purchases”, but the Fed has stressed that any short-term adjustments in that amount will reflect technical adjustments rather than any fundamental changes in balance sheet strategy (for now).  We also include a few comments about the new Fed task forces, including the balance sheet strategy group.