|08:30||Chicago Fed NAI||Only modest improvement expected in June|
|11:30||3- and 6-month bill auction||Steady at $36 billion apiece|
|15:00||Treasury investor class auction data||Mid-July data|
We expect the Chicago Fed’s national tracking index to remain close to its long-run trend of zero in June.
Today's bill auctions: 3- and 6-month bills
This week’s newsletter has three distinct sections. The Treasury on Friday bumped the debt ceiling up to the top of the agenda by sending Congress a letter flagging the possibility that the government might run out of cash earlier than expected. On the Fed policy front, Chair Powell’s congressional testimony reinforced market expectations of a quarter-point rate cut at the end of the month. In that context, we take a look at last week’s market speculation that the Fed might also tweak the IOER within the target range again at this meeting. Finally, the minutes of the June FOMC meeting reported an extensive (and, for now, inconclusive) discussion of the pros and cons of a standing repo facility.