Overview: Thu, January 27

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30GDPSolid increase in Q4, led by consumption and inventories
08:30Durable goodsSlight decline expected in December
08:30Jobless claimsDown a little in latest week, but still well above December lows
10:00Pending home salesModerate decline seems likely in December
11:00Kansas City Fed indexSlight pullback this month, in line with other regional surveys
11:003- and 6-month bill announcementNo changes expected
11:301- and 2-month bill auction$50 billion and $40 billion respectively
13:007-yr note auction$53 billion offering

US Economy

  • Economic Indicator Preview for Thursday, January 27, 2022

    The advance estimate of Q4 GDP, durable goods for December and the weekly jobless claims numbers are all due at 8:30 this morning.  December pending home sales will come out at 10:00, and this month’s Kansas City Fed factory survey will be released at 11:00.

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for January 24, 2022


    The FOMC won’t raise its funds rate target at this week’s FOMC meeting, but it will set the stage for doing so in March.  This week’s newsletter sketches out our very low-conviction base case for Fed policy (liftoff in March, runoffs in August), as well as a couple of topics that were widely discussed in the market last week (the risk of a 50-bp rate hike in March and an early end to the taper this month rather than next).  It also covers one subject that was not widely discussed last week – the possibility of a shift in the Fed’s interim reinvestment protocols from MBS into Treasuries.  We still think this is a likely outcome, but we’re very much an outlier on the topic.

Federal Reserve Commentary

MMO Analysis