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Overview: Fri, May 14

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30Retail salesSolid increase likely but lots of uncertainty
08:30Import pricesSolid gain overall despite slightly softer fuel prices
09:15Industrial productionModerate April increase expected
10:00U. Michigan cons. sent., earlyMay level off this month
10:00Business inventories0.3% rise in March
13:00Kaplan (FOMC non-voter)Takes part in virtual discussion

US Economy

  • Economic Indicator Preview for Friday, May 14, 2021

    April data for retail sales and import prices will be released at 8:30 this morning, and the April industrial production report is due at 9:15.  This month’s preliminary reading for the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index will follow at 10:00.

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for May 10, 2021

    This week’s newsletter expands upon our initial comments about the Treasury’s quarterly financing announcements from last week.  The bill issuance outlook for the spring and summer remains hazy due to the uncertainty about the government’s cash flows in the months ahead, but the Treasury’s strategy for dealing with that uncertainty is clearer than it was before.  At this point, it seems likely that weekly bill paydowns will continue at something like their current pace through the end of May, but bill issuance could turn temporarily positive in June. 

    Looking ahead, life will become more challenging for the Treasury after the debt ceiling comes back into effect.  The Treasury will have to start making compromises on its precautionary cash balance guidelines in August, and will face increasingly severe operating constraints in subsequent months. 

MMO Analysis