Tariff uncertainty will undermine U.S. growth for the foreseeable future – and will also create protracted inflation risks that will prevent the Fed from reacting quickly.  Inflation expectations will be a critical variable in the monetary policy outlook due both to their impact on price-setting dynamics and to their implications for the Fed’s assessment of the current degree of policy restraint.  We also have a grab-bag of selective technical observations about last week’s market developments:  futures positions, the spike in TRACE volume, modest participation levels in the latest Treasury buybacks and the outlook for resuming morning SRF operations.