| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | Retail sales | Big increase in March |
| 08:30 | Phila. Fed mfg survey | Some pullback from last month's extremely high readings |
| 08:30 | Empire State mfg | Little change expected this month |
| 08:30 | Jobless claims | Partial reversal of recent increases |
| 09:15 | Industrial production | Strong rebound in March |
| 10:00 | Business inventories | 0.5% increase in February |
| 10:00 | NAHB index | Unchanged at high level this month |
| 11:00 | 5-yr TIPS and 20-yr bond (r) announcement | $2 billion increase in the TIPS offering expected |
| 11:00 | 3- and 6-month and year-bill announcement | No changes expected |
| 11:00 | 6-week CMB announcement | No changes expected |
| 11:30 | 1- and 2-month bill auction | $40 billion apiece |
| 11:30 | Bostic (FOMC voter) | Discusses economic inequality |
| 14:00 | Daly (FOMC voter) | On financial stability and monetary policy |
| 14:00 | Logan (FOMC non-voter) | Gives speech on impact of abundant reserves on policy |
| 16:00 | Mester (FOMC non-voter) | On economic inclusion |
| 16:00 | Tsy intl cap flows | February data |
Economic Indicator Preview for Thursday, April 15, 2021
March retail sales, this month’s first two regional factory surveys (Empire State and Philadelphia) and the weekly jobless claims report are all due at 8:30 this morning. March industrial production is scheduled for 9:15, and the April NAHB housing market index will round things out at 10:00.
Fed Highlights for Thursday, April 15, 2021
Today's Treasury coupon purchase schedule:
Treasury Highlights for Thursday, April 15, 2021
11:00 am: 3- and 6-month and year-bill announcements
11:00 am: 6-week CMB announcement
11:00 am: TIPS and bond announcements
11:30 am: 1- and 2-month bill auction
Last week’s FOMC minutes affirmed once again that the Fed has an open mind about the possibility of tweaking its ON RRP rate to strengthen the floor under the overnight market. Separately, the head of the Fed’s Open Market Desk on Thursday discussed some upcoming technical adjustments to the Fed’s outright Treasury purchases. The comments from the Desk highlighted the role of the new 20-year bond auction cycle in altering the composition of the existing supply of Treasury coupons, which led to some market speculation that the Fed might increase its allocations to that sector. We think the opposite is the case. The Fed’s recent operations have over-weighted the 20-year sector in practice, and a neutral realignment would re-direct some QE purchases to the 7- to 10-year sector.
