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Overview: Thu, April 17

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30Housing startsMarch correction expected after comparatively strong February
08:30Phila. Fed mfg surveyProbably not as strong as last month
08:30Jobless claimsLittle change expected in the latest week
10:004- and 8-wk bill auctionUnchanged at $85 billion and $75 billion respectively
11:002-, 5-, 7-yr, and 2-yr FRN note announcementNo changes planned
11:006-, 13- and 26-wk bill announcementNo changes expected
11:305-yr TIPS auction$25 billion offering
11:45Barr (FOMC voter)Speaks at cyber security event
14:00Recommended early close

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for April 14, 2025

     

    Tariff uncertainty will undermine U.S. growth for the foreseeable future – and will also create protracted inflation risks that will prevent the Fed from reacting quickly.  Inflation expectations will be a critical variable in the monetary policy outlook due both to their impact on price-setting dynamics and to their implications for the Fed’s assessment of the current degree of policy restraint.  We also have a grab-bag of selective technical observations about last week’s market developments:  futures positions, the spike in TRACE volume, modest participation levels in the latest Treasury buybacks and the outlook for resuming morning SRF operations.

MMO Analysis