| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | Retail sales | Moderate increase, held down by falling gas prices |
| 08:30 | Phila. Fed mfg survey | Solidly positive again this month |
| 08:30 | Jobless claims | Slight decline possible in the latest week |
| 10:00 | Business inventories | Expect a moderate increase in May |
| 10:00 | NAHB index | Another very soft reading expected this month |
| 10:00 | Pending home sales | May level off in June |
| 11:00 | 6-, 13- and 26-wk bill announcement | No changes expected |
| 11:00 | 10-yr TIPS and 20-yr bond (r) announcement | No changes planned |
| 11:30 | 4- and 8-wk bill auction | $110 billion and $100 billion offerings |
| 12:30 | Logan (FOMC voter) | On the outlook for policy and the economy |
| 13:25 | Schmid (FOMC non-voter) | On the economic outlook |
| 14:00 | Treasury buyback (liq support) | Nominal coupons 20Y to 30Y |
| 19:00 | Jefferson (FOMC voter) | On the outlook for policy and the economy |
Treasury Highlights for Thursday, July 16, 2026
Economic Indicator Preview for Friday, July 17, 2026
June data on housing starts and building permits will be published at 8:30 this morning. The June industrial production report is due at 10:00.
Last week’s FOMC minutes did not change the near-term policy outlook significantly but did document a pivot to “scenario analysis” in the way the FOMC is framing its discussions. We expect this to be a more prominent feature in Fed communications going forward. Also, the Fed will announce its monthly bill purchase schedule for the July-August cycle on Monday. We look for an unchanged $10 billion of “reserve management purchases”, but the Fed has stressed that any short-term adjustments in that amount will reflect technical adjustments rather than any fundamental changes in balance sheet strategy (for now). We also include a few comments about the new Fed task forces, including the balance sheet strategy group.
