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Overview: Mon, May 20

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
07:30Bostic (FOMC voter)
Appears on Bloomberg television
08:45Bostic (FOMC voter)Gives welcoming remarks at Atlanta Fed conference
09:00Barr (FOMC voter)Speaks at financial markets conference
09:00Waller (FOMC voter)
Gives welcoming remarks
10:30Jefferson (FOMC voter)
On the economy and the housing market
11:3013- and 26-wk bill auction$70 billion apiece
14:00Mester (FOMC voter)
Appears on Bloomberg television
19:00Bostic (FOMC voter)Moderates discussion at financial markets conference

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for May 20, 2024

     

    This week’s MMO includes our regular quarterly tabulations of major foreign bank holdings of reserve balances at the Federal Reserve.  Once again, FBOs appear to have compressed their holdings of Fed balances by nearly $300 billion on the latest (March 31) quarter-end statement date.  As noted in the past, we think FBO window-dressing effects are one of a number of ways to gauge the extent of surplus reserves in the banking system at present.  The head of the New York Fed’s market group earlier this month highlighted a few others, which we discuss this week as well.  The bottom line on all of these measures is that any concerns about potential reserve stringency are still a very long way off.

Dissenting Votes

Donald Kohn

Fri, January 04, 2008

Presidents have tended to dissent a little more than Governors.  The greater number of dissents by presidents might reflect a number of factors.  For one, presidents have their own staffs, which can help support alternative views in preparing for a meeting.  Board members share a common staff with the Chairman, and, being in the same building, perhaps have a greater opportunity to influence and be influenced by the Chairman.  In this regard, Bank presidents may act like "outsiders" more readily than Board members.  At the same time, Bank presidents tend to be longer tenured than Board members, and can contribute the institutional memory one might expect from "insiders" when Board membership turns over rapidly. 

...

FOMC members recognize the degree of uncertainty around their judgments.  Unless they perceive that a serious misjudgment is being made, they expect, given common objectives, that when they prefer another policy and their analysis later proves correct, the Committee is likely to move in their direction in time to forestall problems developing.  And they may see their influence on policy as greater over time if they are usually part of the consensus. 

Michael Moskow

Mon, March 26, 2007

Also, not through any specific policy or initiative, but perhaps just by its culture, the Fed has always placed a premium on uniting around the consensus policy action. While some in the FOMC might have expressed a different opinion from the consensus during the policy discussion, most of our votes are unanimous. At other central banks, such as the Bank of England, dissent is much more common, and 5 to 4 votes are not out of the ordinary.

Paul Volcker

Mon, September 25, 2006

Leadership of the Federal Reserve is better, so we don't have to.

In response to a question about why he and other recent presidents of the New York Fed have not dissented from FOMC policy decisions, unlike some of their predecessors in earlier decades. 

 

William Poole

Thu, August 31, 2006

Unanimous decisions, while desirable, are not required and members are free to dissent from the consensus view if they feel strongly that an alternative policy action is preferable. Indeed, I believe that it is my obligation under the Federal Reserve Act to dissent when I believe strongly that an alternative policy course would be better. Historically, dissents were not unusual though in the recent years they have been relatively rare.

Jeffrey Lacker

Wed, August 30, 2006

In the next meeting, I'll obviously make an independent assessment, but I haven't seen anything since the last meeting that changes my assessment. 

In response to a question about whether he would dissent for a second consecutive meeting.

Vincent Reinhart

Wed, February 02, 2005

My experience in surveying you has been that if I ask the 19 of you “What is the color of an orange?” I couldn’t be sure of getting a majority on a single answer. [Laughter] This most recent survey was no exception. Almost as many of you strongly endorsed an expedited release of your projections as strongly opposed it. An equal number of you endorsed it as opposed it, and there were two lonely people who were indifferent. [Laughter] Thus, since expediting the release of the forecast is a decision that cannot be reversed, it doesn’t seem appropriate to move forward with a discussion of it today.

William Poole

Wed, October 06, 2004

Moreover, it is important to note that a statement of probable future policy direction may actually be a more important policy decision than the setting of the current intended federal funds rate.  How easy would it be for a member to agree to a policy action on the intended federal funds rate but dissent over the wording of the policy statement indicating a probable future direction to policy?  The FOMC decision process certainly includes the obligation of FOMC members to dissent when they have a fundamental disagreement with the policy decision; that process is well understood today with reference to the decision on the intended federal funds rate.  To maintain the integrity of the dissent process, the public will have to understand that dissents may be in order over the wording of the policy statement, a possibility that has not been widely discussed.

Laurence Meyer

Sun, May 31, 1998

A second tradition is to try to reach a consensus on the policy decision. It is quite common for there to be differences of opinion and yet a unanimous vote. This would be the case, for example, where the question was one of timing rather than of principle. Unanimous votes are common. One or two dissents are not unusual, but more than two dissents at a meeting are rare.

Because of these two traditions—that the chairman is always on the winning side of a vote and that the committee strives to reach a consensus—the chairman's presentation at the start of the policy go-round is so important. It is the key moment, other than the vote itself at the meeting. There is a special sense of anticipation here because the chairman often will provide some new data or some new insight in support of his position.

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