I can be reasonably certain of only one point: My economic forecast is highly likely to be wrong--but I don't know how. One implication of this pervasive uncertainty is that any statement about the future path of monetary policy must be conditional--dependent on the economy following the expected path. Although the FOMC has stated that the federal funds rate is likely to remain exceptionally low for an extended period, this statement explicitly depends on an economic outlook similar to the one I have given today. We cannot provide a precise timetable for when short-term interest rates will begin to return to normal because that depends on the evolution of actual and projected activity and inflation.
One implication of this pervasive uncertainty is that any statement about the future path of monetary policy must be conditional--dependent on the economy following the expected path. Although the FOMC has stated that the federal funds rate is likely to remain exceptionally low for an extended period, this statement explicitly depends on an economic outlook similar to the one I have given today. We cannot provide a precise timetable for when short-term interest rates will begin to return to normal because that depends on the evolution of actual and projected activity and inflation.
In my experience, these and other considerations put a premium on flexibility. The need to learn from and respond to news means that policy should have a substantial discretionary component. We have certainly needed to innovate over the past several years to contain the damage from unprecedented events in financial markets. But discretion has its limits as well. We must be able to explain and justify our actions within a coherent framework--even if the elements of that framework are adjusted from time to time as experience dictates. And to the extent that we can act predictably, households and businesses will be able to anticipate our actions, reinforcing their effects. Finally, we must not be flexible about our objectives. The goals of monetary policy--price stability and maximum employment--are stable and well known. The flexibility relates to the actions we take to get there.