It is important to emphasize that what is odd is not that there was a risk of rising short-term interest rates, as there always is, but that the market clearly expected an increase, as indicated by the shape of the yield curve. This expectation, in turn, was encouraged by the Fed’s Open Market Committee. The policy statement issued at the conclusion of the FOMC meeting of May 4, 2004, said that “the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured.” A similar phrase appeared in subsequent FOMC policy statements until December 2005, when the language was changed slightly to “the Committee judges that some further measured policy firming is likely to be needed.” At its next meeting, in January 2006, the language changed from “is likely to be needed” to “may be needed,” and somewhat similar language remained in the policy statement through the FOMC meeting in January 2007.
Given these widely held expectations of rising interest rates, it is difficult to avoid the judgment that these ARM loans were poorly underwritten at the outset. It was imprudent for mortgage brokers and lenders to approve borrowers who likely could not service the loans when rates rose, and it is surprising to me that sophisticated capital-market investors willingly purchased securities backed by such poorly underwritten mortgages.