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Overview: Mon, April 29

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
10:30Dallas Fed manufacturing surveySlight improvement seems likely this month
11:3013- and 26-wk bill auction$70 billion apiece
15:00Tsy financing estimatesPro forma estimates of $177 billion and $750 billion for Q2 and Q3?

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for April 29, 2024

     

    Chair Powell won’t be able to give the market much guidance about the timing of the first rate cut in this week’s press conference.  The disappointing performance of the inflation data in the first quarter has put Fed policy on hold for the indefinite future.  He should, however, be able to provide a timeline for the upcoming cutback in balance sheet runoffs.  There is some chance that the Fed might wait until June to pull the trigger, but we think it is more likely to get the transition out of the way this month.  The Fed’s QT decision, obviously, will hang over the Treasury’s quarterly refunding process this week.  The pro forma quarterly borrowing projections released on Monday will presumably not reflect any change in the pace of SOMA runoffs, so the outlook will probably evolve again after the Fed announcement on Wednesday afternoon.

"Live" Meetings

James Bullard

Mon, June 06, 2016

Who knows – (chuckles) – what’s going to break just right in those days right before [FOMC meetings]? And then – and then if you feel like, well, I can’t – I can’t do anything right at that meeting, then you got to wait, you know, 90 days till the next meeting. I don’t think, you know, in an environment where you’re trying to normalize rates, that that’s a good approach. I think instead you should be willing to move and able to move when the data is fairly strong and you have a good case to make, and then you’re able to move at that particular meeting. So, basically, all meetings should be the same. They should all be considered exactly the same.

James Bullard

Wed, May 25, 2016

So I think you can make a move without press conferences in this circumstance. I think for that first move, you know the one we did in December, there you probably wanted to have a press conference around that because that was our first move. Whether you have to do that for every single move, I think it is questionable.

John Williams

Tue, May 17, 2016

“I think that the data to my mind are lining up to make a good case for rate increases in the next few meetings, not just June, which means it’s very live in terms of that,” Mr. Williams said Tuesday in an interview with reporters and editors of The Wall Street Journal.

Dennis Lockhart

Tue, May 03, 2016

While Lockhart said markets should put more probability on June being "a real option", he did little to signal that he felt the economy would be sufficiently settled for a June increase.

James Bullard

Wed, April 06, 2016

Not only have we moved at all kinds of different meetings, we’ve actually had inter-meeting meetings, special meetings, and moved at those meetings. So you can do a lot of things. You know, I’m not saying we’re going to — you know, I’m planning on that or anything, but the Committee certainly reserves the right to make a move at any time.

Charles Evans

Wed, March 30, 2016

Liesman: You talked about agreements and disagreements is there a split on the federal reserve? A bunch of folks stepped out last week and said that april was the time the feds should consider it but i don't hear that from fed chair janet yellen at all that april is even on the table.

Evans: Well, in fairness I think she did say during the press conference well, of course we go into these meetings, April is live, they're all live meetings, we go in to talk about things. I would say the threshold for having confidence that inflation is going to sustainably move up towards our 2% inflation target is high. That hurdle is pretty high. So I'd be surprised if we met that condition myself in April. I think moving in June would be on the basis of further improvements in the labor market like what we've had.

MMO Analysis