Yellen, Janet

Indeed, we have already seen that the pace of house-price appreciation has clearly moderated, and there are signs that it may continue. For example, one indicator we have been following is the Case-Shiller house price index, which is based on house price data in ten large urban markets—three of which are in California, by the way. Beginning in May of this year, futures contracts on this price index began trading, and they show house prices falling at about a 6 percent annual rate by the end of this year. Though this is still a very new and pretty thin market, the results are interesting and suggestive.