Lacker, Jeffrey
Since the end of the recession, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of just 2.1 percent. In contrast, in the 60 years before the recession, real GDP grew at an average annual rate of 3.5 percent. Based in part on that long track record, many forecasters, myself included, were expecting growth to pick up to a more robust pace. More recently, however, I have come to the conclusion that a sustained acceleration of growth to something over 3 percent in the near future is unlikely. Given what we know, it strikes me as more likely that growth will continue to average somewhere between 2 and 2 1/2 percent. Let me briefly explain why.
It's helpful to start by thinking of the growth in real GDP as the sum of two components: growth in employment and growth in GDP per employee, a measure of productivity growth. When you calculate these two components, you find that both have slowed considerably since the Great Recession.
Taking these in turn, the rate of growth in employment has been about two-thirds of the rate we saw in the decades prior to the Great Recession. Part of that decline reflects structural developments such as slower growth in the working-age population, the aging of the baby boomers and the rise of enrollment in educational institutions. In addition, we've seen a gradual secular decline in the labor force participation rates for people in the prime working-age group aged 25 to 54. Some economists attribute this to workers becoming discouraged about their job market prospects and argue that the unemployment rate is understating the amount of "slack" in the labor market. Our research indicates, however, that there is always more slack than indicated by the standard unemployment rate, and by some measures there seems to be no more additional slack now than is typically associated with the current level of the unemployment rate.
Productivity growth, the other component of real GDP, grew fairly rapidly in the early postwar period, rising at a 2.7 percent annual rate from 1948 to 1969. Productivity growth then slowed, rising at a 1.4 percent annual rate from 1969 to 2007. And since the fourth quarter of 2007, productivity growth has averaged only 1.0 percent per year.
An active debate has sprung up concerning prospects for future productivity growth. Some economists have suggested that major, broad-based advances in technology are far less likely than in the past, and that we should prepare for a relatively stagnant productivity trend. I am not so gloomy, however, in large part because of the amazing historical record of technological innovations that solve current problems and simultaneously open up new possibilities for future innovations. Having said that, the difficulty of forecasting output per worker suggests that the middling productivity gains we've seen over the last few years are probably the best guide to near-term productivity trends. Thus, I am not expecting an imminent acceleration in productivity growth.
Productivity growth is critically important because it's what drives growth in real wages and real household income, which in turn ultimately drives consumer spending. Some proponents of the view that GDP growth will soon accelerate argue that a pickup in productivity growth will boost disposable income trends and thereby set off an acceleration in consumer spending. Data earlier in the year seemed to indicate that such an acceleration might be in train. More recent household spending figures suggest otherwise, however
The housing market has also perplexed forecasters over the course of this expansion Potential homebuyers now seem to be more conscious of the financial risks of homeownership than before, and housing demand has been shifting toward multifamily rental units. Moreover, the overhang of homes associated with foreclosures and seriously delinquent mortgages remains elevated, and this is dampening housing market activity. Thus, I am expecting residential investment to make only modest contributions to overall growth over the near term.
These three factors subdued productivity growth, moderate consumer spending growth and a more tempered expansion in housing construction are keys to my assessment that overall economic growth is likely to average between 2 and 2 percent over the near term, which is around the average rate we've seen for this expansion.