The 12-month inflation rate through July was measured at 5.6 percent, the highest since 1991. This is a high and worrisome number...No matter how you measure it, the aggregate inflation we are experiencing in the United States at the moment is uncomfortably high.

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I expect the recent decline in oil prices will begin to reverse some of the pressures we have seen on overall inflation in the first half of the year. But the underlying global supply pressures remain tight, and demand pressures remain relatively high. As such, any relief will likely be only partial.

Furthermore, some government estimates suggest little respite from food price hikes in the near term. At this point, it seems quite probable that PCE index inflation this calendar year will clock in at more than 3.5 percent and the CPI somewhere north of 4 percent—an improvement over the first half of the year, and trending in the right direction, but not numbers I would be comfortable with over the longer term.

Although recent measures of inflation are higher than I would like to see, I would say that recent price increases are more likely to be transitory than persistent. I expect that CPI inflation will peak near the July level of 5.6 percent. By comparison, in March 1980 the CPI peaked at 14.8 percent.
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I concur with that view and believe current Fed policy is consistent with an easing in overall inflation given the dynamics of the economy. With weak growth and financial market strains, I believe the most likely outcome is that both headline and core inflation will diminish over the rest of 2008 and into next year as the temporary effects of energy and food price increases abate. Note that my outlook does not require that food and energy prices fall, but simply that their rates of increase moderate.

I don't see, from what I know now, a likelihood of a real inflation outbreak.  Rather, what seems to be more likely is that we will have a persistance of inflation.  what I'm hoping is that it is persistently tapering off, rather than persistently creeping up.

From Q&A session as reported by Bloomberg News

Potential GDP has got to be something in the neighborhood of 3% to 3.5% over the next few years.

From Q&A session as reported by Bloomberg News

{Monthly payroll gains of 100,000 would be enough to} maintain a steady unemployment rate, taking into account labor-force growth.

From Q&A session as reported by Bloomberg News

My own personal view is that there is too much emphasis on housing.  It's also true that there's a very substantial boom taking place that many people don't seem to realize in business structures...  That part of the economy is going gangbusters.  The economy, to me, does not seem to be fragile with that kind of activity.

From Q&A session as reported by Bloomberg News

We at the Chicago Fed think that after a strong rebound in the first quarter of 2006, real GDP growth will average somewhat above three percent over the next couple of years. We expect that the unemployment rate will change little from its current level and that inflation will remain contained. However, inflation currently is near the upper end of the range that I feel is consistent with price stability. As such, I believe monetary policy must be vigilant. We need to make sure that increases in resource utilization or prices of energy and other commodities do not add to inflationary pressures or increase inflation expectations.

The U.S. economy is embarked upon a period of sustained expansion. Looking forward, I expect real GDP to grow at a rate of 3-1/2 to 4 percent through 2005. Earlier this year I would have favored the upper end of this range, but recent events have dampened that forecast somewhat toward the lower end of this band. Of course, the price of oil is one factor that will play a role in determining the exact magnitude of this number.

Disappointing growth of our trading partners’ economies, the increased world price of oil, and the pattern of exchange rate movements since the beginning of this year, all suggest the deficit may continue to widen.

Nonfarm payrolls have been growing for some time now, and I expect them to continue increasing at an average rate of 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month this year.

I believe the US economy is embarked upon a period of sustained expansion…And after a mild scare of another 'soft patch' earlier this year, the economy looks to be expanding at a moderate pace. Looking forward, I expect real GDP to grow at a rate of 3-1/2 to 4 percent through 2005. Earlier this year I would have favored the upper end of this range, but recent events have dampened that forecast somewhat.

I expect GDP growth will remain on a very positive path. I think the forecast I made early this year of growth for all of 2005 in the range of 3.5 to 4 percent still seems reasonable.

Oil prices have backed off some.  And even if they stay high, which most economists and market participants are assuming, looking toward the end of the year and into [2006], probably $50-a-barrel oil prices seem likely to be with us.

In the year ahead, the U.S. economy should continue its solid performance, growing nearly 4 percent with productivity growing more than 2.5 percent. Taking a longer view, we will continue to achieve such strong levels of performance if we provide fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies that encourage an open, competitive, progressive, and noninflationary economy—an economy in which the entrepreneur and the American worker can thrive.

Looking forward, the economy appears to be on course for a sustained period of solid expansion. I expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of around 4 percent this year and next, with payroll employment increasing by 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month.

I see real GDP growth of about 4 percent or so this year [2005]. I also expect to see a continuation of the recent acceleration in job creation as the economy continues to expand. And inflation, while elevated over its pace from a year ago, seems likely to be well behaved on the whole.