In statistical analyses of inflation, the data historically have exhibited persistence. This basically means that, when you're forecasting inflation, it works pretty well to assume that the rate in the future will be the same as it is today. The implication of persistence is frankly worrisome: Since inflation is too high today, persistence implies it could stay too high for an extended period. However, recent research at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco has shed new light on this issue. 1 It finds less evidence of persistence during the past ten years. That is, rather than sticking at a certain rate, inflation has tended to revert to its long-run average, which, over that period, is within my comfort zone. Admittedly, the past ten years constitute a relatively small sample from which to draw definitive conclusions. Nonetheless, this evidence is important because, if it holds up, it implies that inflation may move down from its elevated level faster than many forecasters expect.