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Overview: Wed, May 15

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
07:00MBA mortgage prch. indexHas tended to decline in May
08:30CPIBoosted a little by energy
08:30Retail salesBack to earth in April
08:30Empire State mfgNo particular reason to expect much change this month
10:00Business inventoriesDown slightly in March
10:00NAHB indexFlat again in May
11:3017-wk bill auction$60 billion offering
12:00Kashkari (FOMC non-voter)Speaks at petroleum conference
15:20Bowman (FOMC voter)On financial innovation
16:00Tsy intl cap flowsMarch data

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for May 13, 2024


    Abridged Edition.
      Due to technical production issues, this weekend's issue of our newsletter is limited to our regular Treasury and economic indicator calendars.  We will return to our regular format next week.

Timeframe for Reducing Inflation

Narayana Kocherlakota

Tue, October 07, 2014

The FOMC should consider articulating a benchmark two-year time horizon for returning inflation to the 2 percent goal.

Right now, although the FOMC has a 2 percent inflation objective over the long run, it has not specified any time frame for achieving that objective. This lack of specificity suggests that appropriate monetary policy might engender inflation that is far from the 2 percent target for years at a time and thereby creates undue inflation (and related employment) uncertainty.

William Poole

Mon, March 05, 2007

Maintaining price stability does not require that the central bank come down hard on every upward twitch in the inflation rate, but disciplined response is required when the inflation rate threatens to rise in a sustained fashion or fall into deflation. Central bankers need to apply their best judgment, and they will not always be correct in those judgments. But if they have a good record and the market retains confidence that the central bank will correct its mistakes, errors in judgment will not do lasting damage. I myself rely heavily on market measures of inflation expectations in forming my judgments and in deciding what policy risks to run—in an uncertain world, it is always the case that policy judgments depend on probabilistic calculations.

Janet Yellen

Fri, February 23, 2007

I would see that {tightening in order to bring inflation down quickly} as creating greater risks to employment and to the real economy that to my mind represent a risk that we should not take.   What I want to see is a path for inflation that is heading downward.

In audience Q&A session as reported by Bloomberg News

Janet Yellen

Wed, February 21, 2007

Speaking to reporters afterward, Yellen said she has no "concrete timetable" for a decline in inflation.  "Inflation is a very slow process, and one has to be patient in seeing progress," she said, adding that it's also possible inflation may fall at a faster pace.

As reported by Bloomberg News

William Poole

Wed, February 21, 2007

If we get surprises -- because we are running on the high side of anyone's inflation objective -- that suggest inflation is not likely to be on a downward trend, then I think what I would advocate is that we ought to be ready to raise rates.

Michael Moskow

Thu, November 16, 2006

"One month doesn't make a trend,'' Moskow told reporters after a speech to American Business Media in Chicago. ``{The CPI} is moving in the right direction. The key is whether that can be sustained and how quickly we can move to rates that are within the range that is commensurate with price stability. We are certainly not there now.''

Donald Kohn

Wed, October 04, 2006

In response to greater demand, the supply of rental housing should increase over time, in part by drawing from the overhang of owner-occupied units; hence, I do not expect rents to be a major influence on core inflation a year or two from now, the horizon that is the focus of monetary policymaking.

 

William Poole

Mon, September 11, 2006

"Poole said in comments to reporters following his NABE speech that he'd like to see inflation come down over a period of quarters, not years".

Dow Jones Newswires summary of Poole's remarks

Janet Yellen

Thu, September 07, 2006

I would expect us to be within the {comfort} zone within a couple of years.  We are a little above the top of the zone now and my own personal expectation is, inflation is moderating, and we will get down to the zone...

To bring inflation down very, very rapidly in a narrow timeframe of a year or two can require swings in monetary policy that can be damaging to the economy.  So there is a trade-off. 

It is always an important consideration to make sure our credibility is intact and that inflation expectations remain well contained.

Jeffrey Lacker

Tue, September 05, 2006

The longer we go without signs of a deceleration in core inflation, the more we risk inflation becoming entrenched at this higher level. And if that happens, if people come to expect it to continue at two and three quarters, then it would take substantially more action on our part to bring it down to where we want to see it over time.

So that's the risk that I see, of inflation becoming entrenched at or above where it is now, and we're already seeing signs that that might be happening, because of the acceleration of compensation costs ...

MMO Analysis