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Overview: Mon, April 29

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
10:30Dallas Fed manufacturing surveySlight improvement seems likely this month
11:3013- and 26-wk bill auction$70 billion apiece
15:00Tsy financing estimatesPro forma estimates of $177 billion and $750 billion for Q2 and Q3?

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for April 29, 2024

     

    Chair Powell won’t be able to give the market much guidance about the timing of the first rate cut in this week’s press conference.  The disappointing performance of the inflation data in the first quarter has put Fed policy on hold for the indefinite future.  He should, however, be able to provide a timeline for the upcoming cutback in balance sheet runoffs.  There is some chance that the Fed might wait until June to pull the trigger, but we think it is more likely to get the transition out of the way this month.  The Fed’s QT decision, obviously, will hang over the Treasury’s quarterly refunding process this week.  The pro forma quarterly borrowing projections released on Monday will presumably not reflect any change in the pace of SOMA runoffs, so the outlook will probably evolve again after the Fed announcement on Wednesday afternoon.

TALF

Charles Evans

Mon, June 15, 2009

Admittedly TALF has generated two opposite concerns: one is that our credit requirements are too conservative and unlikely to fund large volumes; the other is that the central bank is taking too much credit risk on its balance sheet. I think we have struck a good balance between these concerns.

At this point we see evidence that TALF is working as intended. Spreads on asset–backed securities have come down. And while much of the recent ABS issuance has been supported by TALF loans, some institutional investors are re–entering these markets without that support.

I think this {to expand the TALF program} aggressive move was appropriate considering the many risks we were facing, the direness of some forecasts, and the uncertainty surrounding our new tools. Future developments will help us determine if our actions to date have been too much, too little, or just right.

William Dudley

Thu, June 04, 2009

Although it is still too early to say the TALF has been a resounding success, we at the Fed are encouraged by the results so far.

Jeffrey Lacker

Sat, January 31, 2009

"If you compare buying Treasuries to a targeted credit program, the targeted credit program will result in probably lower interest rates in the targeted sector, but higher interest rates in the other sectors."

...

"I would have preferred a program of buying Treasuries over targeted credit programs like the Term Asset-Backed Securities Lending Facility", Lacker said. He said he would not be opposed to the purchase of long-term Treasury securities such as 10-year notes and 30-year bonds.

As reported by Bloomberg News

Charles Evans

Thu, January 15, 2009

In another joint program, the Federal Reserve and the Treasury established the Term Asset Liability Fund, or TALF.

Janet Yellen

Sun, January 04, 2009

The Federal Reserve Act confines the System's outright asset purchases to securities issued or guaranteed by the U.S. Treasury or U.S. agencies. Even so, the Fed has the potential to use its balance sheet to restore functioning in other impaired financial markets. The recently announced Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) provides a model for doing so. This new Fed facility is designed to spur lending to meet the credit needs of households and small businesses. The facility will support the issuance of securities collateralized by auto, student, credit card, and Small Business Administration (SBA) loans—sectors where the issuance of new securities has slowed to a trickle. The high borrowing spreads on such securities, even when the underlying loans are government-guaranteed—as in the case of SBA and many student loans—suggest not only heightened credit risk but also an impairment of market liquidity which the facilities can address. The inability of financial institutions to securitize such loans, and of potential investors in such securities to borrow against them on reasonable terms, reflects an important breakdown in credit markets. By improving the functioning of markets for securitized assets, the Fed has the potential to boost private-sector credit flows in support of the economy. Under the TALF, which is a joint Federal Reserve-Treasury initiative, the Fed has agreed to provide nonrecourse loans to holders of eligible highly rated asset-backed securities. Cooperation with the Treasury is necessary because the program entails some risk of loss and, under the Federal Reserve Act, all Fed lending must be appropriately secured. The Treasury has committed $20 billion of TARP funds to protect the Fed against losses on the Fed's lending commitment of up to $200 billion.

MMO Analysis