I have to say that the continued demand for economists’ forecasts is a little puzzling to me, given our track record. On that note, it’s been said that economists make predictions about gross domestic product to the hundredth decimal point for one reason: to prove that they have a sense of humor. Well, just to assure you that I am taking this all very seriously, I will keep my forecasts to the tenth decimal point.

Inflation expectations have remained remarkably stable, but not at the 1.86 percent headline PCE inflation rate established during the decade from 1994 to 2003.