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Overview: Tue, May 07

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
10:00RCM/TIPP economic optimism index Sentiment holding steady in May?
11:004-, 8- and 17-wk bill announcementIncreases in the 4- and 8-week bills expected
11:306-wk bill auction$75 billion offering
11:30Kashkari (FOMC non-voter)Speaks at Milken Institute conference
13:003-yr note auction$58 billion offering
15:00Treasury investor class auction dataFull April data
15:00Consumer creditMarch data

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for May 6, 2024

     

    Last week’s Fed and Treasury announcements allowed us to do a lot of forecast housekeeping.  Net Treasury bill issuance between now and the end of September appears likely to be somewhat higher on balance and far more volatile from month to month than we had previously anticipated.  In addition, we discuss the implications of the unexpected increase in the Treasury’s September 30 TGA target and the Fed’s surprising MBS reinvestment guidance. 

Saving Ammunition

James Bullard

Fri, September 30, 2011

The Fed has potent tools at its disposal and is not now, or ever, "out of ammunition."

Richard Fisher

Mon, February 23, 2009

P. G. Wodehouse, my favorite comedic author, used to say that "there is only one cure for gray hair. It was invented by a Frenchman. It is called the guillotine." But my colleagues at the Federal Reserve and I refuse to be fatalistic. (Besides, those of us who still have hair have seen it turn gray this past year.) Though in normal times, central bankers appear to be the most laconic genus of the human species, in times of distress, we believe in the monetary equivalent of the Powell Doctrine: We believe that good ideas, properly vetted and appropriately directed with an exit strategy in mind, can and should be brought to bear with overwhelming force to defeat threats to economic stability.

Gary Stern

Thu, March 27, 2008

It's not top of the list of my concerns.

From Q&A as reported by Reuters. Stern was asked if he was worried the Fed was running out of room to maneuvre.

Ben Bernanke

Wed, November 20, 2002

Because central banks conventionally conduct monetary policy by manipulating the short-term nominal interest rate, some observers have concluded that when that key rate stands at or near zero, the central bank has "run out of ammunition"--that is, it no longer has the power to expand aggregate demand and hence economic activity. It is true that once the policy rate has been driven down to zero, a central bank can no longer use its traditional means of stimulating aggregate demand and thus will be operating in less familiar territory. The central bank's inability to use its traditional methods may complicate the policymaking process and introduce uncertainty in the size and timing of the economy's response to policy actions. Hence I agree that the situation is one to be avoided if possible.

Alan Greenspan

Tue, April 10, 2001

I indicated earlier that I would counsel against moving today, for if we do, in my judgment we will break whatever developing pattern for equity price stability may be currently emerging, at least temporarily. Were we to cut rates, there doubtless would be an initial sharp rise in stock prices as less sophisticated buyers enter the market.  However, a move today would remove the constructive ambiguity about monetary policy from the markets. As a consequence, after the initial price surge the more sophisticated traders could well be selling, with a distinct possibility that stock prices would fall markedly, essentially undercutting the nascent stabilization that may be in the process of forming. We would have used up some significant monetary policy ammunition without realizing any short-term stabilizing benefits. Long term, of course, it doesn’t matter much unless the failure of achieving short-term stability sets us on a path with long-term consequences.

To repeat, we have a credible intermeeting window over the next 10 days. Let us employ the time to monitor markets, but especially to look for evidence of emerging stability in capital goods orders. I might say in closing that I know all of you in the Reserve Banks will be working on Beige Book commentary shortly. And I would request that you make a special endeavor to see if you can gain some insights on what is going on in capital spending within your Districts and what the prospects are for a stabilization and hopefully an upturn.

Paul Volcker

Thu, September 13, 1979

We don't have a lot of room for maneuver and I don't think we want to use up all our ammunition right now in a really dramatic action.

MMO Analysis