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Overview: Thu, May 16

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30Housing startsPartial April recovery after big drop in March
08:30Import pricesA solid increase appears likely in April
08:30Phila. Fed mfg surveyProbably down somewhat this month
08:30Jobless claimsPartial reversal of last week's uptick
09:15Industrial productionFlat in April
10:00Barr (FOMC voter)Appears before Senate
10:00Barkin (FOMC voter)
Appears on CNBC
10:30Harker (FOMC non-voter)On the economic impact of higher education
11:0010-yr TIPS (r) and 20-yr bond announcementNo changes planned
11:006-, 13- and 26-wk bill announcementNo changes expected
11:304- and 8-wk bill auction$80 billion apiece
12:00Mester (FOMC voter)On the economic outlook
16:00Bostic (FOMC voter)Takes part in fireside chat

US Economy

  • Economic Indicator Preview for Thursday, May 16, 2024

    The latest weekly jobless claims report, the May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey and April data on housing starts and building permits will all be released at 8:30 this morning.  The April industrial production report will come out at 9:15.

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for May 13, 2024


    Abridged Edition.
      Due to technical production issues, this weekend's issue of our newsletter is limited to our regular Treasury and economic indicator calendars.  We will return to our regular format next week.

Monetary Policy

Charles Plosser

Fri, May 25, 2012

“From a policy perspective, the assumption that a central bank can always and everywhere credibly commit to its policy rule is, I believe, also questionable,” Plosser said at a conference sponsored by Germany’s Bundesbank and the Philadelphia Fed.

“In practice, I seek ways to make policy more systematic and more credible,” Plosser said. Still, “commitment is a luxury few central bankers ever actually have, and fewer still faithfully follow.”

Richard Fisher

Mon, April 30, 2012

By providing monetary accommodation, we’re saying, in essence, Congress, you better eat your vegetables, or we’ll serve you a big plate of monetary cookies.

Dennis Lockhart

Thu, March 01, 2012

I recently heard the analogy of a clogged drain in a kitchen sink. The speaker posed the question of whether the Fed should push on the blockage by running the water more intensely or instead put on a rubber glove, reach down, and pull the stuff out. Even the normally technical discussions of monetary policy can have a "yuck" factor from time to time.

Charles Plosser

Fri, February 24, 2012

When the Fed engages in targeted credit programs that seek to alter the allocation of credit across markets, I believe it is engaging in fiscal policy and has breached the traditional boundaries established between the fiscal authorities and the central bank. Indeed, some of these actions have generated pointed criticisms of the Fed.

John Williams

Fri, February 24, 2012

Housing is a major factor in the deep downturn and sluggish recovery we’ve experienced in recent years. It’s not the only headwind. But it’s one of several factors weighing on aggregate spending by consumers, businesses, and government. An aggregate-demand shortfall is something monetary policy can be, should be, and is addressing.

Ben Bernanke

Thu, February 16, 2012

In the longer term the overall effect on bank profitability of an appropriately accommodative monetary policy is almost certainly positive.

Charles Plosser

Tue, February 14, 2012

Monetary policy is sometimes criticized for such “go-stop” policies. Policymakers step on the accelerator aggressively, only to slam on the brakes in order to change course. Such an approach to policy can be highly destabilizing, creating added volatility for financial markets and the economy... It is an approach most often driven by an excessive focus on the short run and perhaps some hubris that we will be able to successfully avert the risks such a strategy poses for the economy over the longer run.

William Dudley

Fri, January 06, 2012

[B]ecause the outlook for unemployment is unacceptably high relative to our dual mandate and the outlook for inflation is moderate, I believe it is also appropriate to continue to evaluate whether we could provide additional accommodation in a manner that produces more benefits than costs, regardless of whether action in housing is undertaken or not.

John Williams

Thu, July 28, 2011

“Make no mistake -- the Federal Reserve doesn’t have a magic wand that will allow the economy to get through a crisis of this magnitude unscathed,” the regional bank chief said in the text of a speech in Salt Lake City. “A federal default must be avoided,” he said.

Thomas Hoenig

Tue, July 19, 2011

I suspect that as we’ve done in the past we will look to the central bank of the United States and the world’s central banks to inflate our way out of this because it’s so much easier.

Thomas Hoenig

Thu, June 30, 2011

If I judged—or if evidence suggested—that a zero rate would solve our country’s unemployment problem or speed up the recovery without causing other adverse consequences, I would support it. However, monetary policy is not a tool that can solve every problem.

Eric Rosengren

Wed, May 04, 2011

While many observers see food and energy prices rising and assume the Fed should tighten policy – raise the cost of money and credit – to head off inflation, I would suggest taking a step back and recognizing that tighter U.S. monetary policy will do nothing to stabilize Libyan oil production, reduce uncertainty about political stability in the rest of the Middle East, or increase the wheat harvest in Russia.

In fact, tightening monetary policy solely in response to contractionary supply shocks would likely make the impact of the shocks worse for households and businesses.

Narayana Kocherlakota

Fri, April 01, 2011

I’ve argued that even if the fiscal authority borrows exclusively in its country’s own currency, the central bank can have a large amount of control over the price level. But the central bank can only achieve that control if it is willing to commit to letting the fiscal authority default. Such a commitment may expose the country to risks of short-term and medium-term output losses. How this trade-off should best be resolved awaits future research. But I suspect that it may be optimal for central banks to guarantee fiscal authority debts in some situations. If so, we again have to think of price level determination as something that is done jointly by the fiscal authority and the central bank.

Richard Fisher

Fri, April 01, 2011

[The Fed] “opened the floodgates” and “it worked,” the regional bank chief, who votes on monetary policy this year, said during a speech today in Dallas. “We re- liquefied the economy. In my opinion, we might have done too much."

Charles Plosser

Fri, April 01, 2011

Some fear that the strong rise in commodity and energy prices will lead to a more general sustained inflation. Yet, at the end of the day, such price shocks don’t create sustained inflation, monetary policy does.

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MMO Analysis