Trend productivity growth seems likely to settle down to something around 2½ percent—a respectable estimate of its sustainable rate. In that scenario, real GDP growth of 4 to 4½ percent for 2005 seems pretty reasonable. ... Given all the unpredictable things that can happen, a point forecast of 4 percent growth over the four quarters of 2005 should really be expressed as a growth rate of 4 plus or minus 1¼ percent.

The U.S. economy, as I indicated, is growing in 2004, the data says, slightly less than four percent. I’m predicting 3.5 to four percent. That's slightly above potential.

Looking forward, I expect real GDP to expand at a 3.5 to 4 percent rate through 2005.

... I expect them to continue increasing at a rate of 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month this year. With those kinds of employment gains, the unemployment rate should continue its gradual decline.

The most likely answer is the economy will grow again at about 4 percent or so.  I also expect to see some acceleration in job creation as the economy continues to expand.  And inflation seems likely to be well behaved, at least over the near term. 

I’m comfortable with consensus forecasts for annualized GDP growth for this year of about 3 ½ to 4 percent.

GDP growth seems most likely to lie in the three and one half to four percent range next year, barring a large unforeseen economic shock.

For 2005, I expect inflation to come in between one and two percent, as measured by the PCE price index, and I expect inflation expectations to remain contained.

Looking ahead, I expect real GDP growth to be in the neighborhood of 4 percent for 2005. Given this scenario, the Fed should continue moving monetary policy toward a neutral stance at a measured pace and thus keep inflationary pressures well-contained.