Looking ahead, I expect the favorable performance of the economy to continue.  Most private forecasters expect the momentum from the solid growth in 2005 to continue into 2006.  Although monetary policy has become less accommodative, it will continue to support economic activity.  Because of the lags with which monetary policy affects the economy, monetary policy accommodation over the past year will continue to act as an economic stimulant, though clearly far less so than in the past several years...My own view is that we will see growth in the 3 1/4 to 3 1/2 percent range, which encompasses the consensus estimate.

As in 2005, consumer spending is expected to be a primary contributor to growth in 2006.  In recent months, consumer confidence measures have sharply rebounded from the hurricane-related decline last fall.  More importantly, consumer expectations of the future are positive.  One possible drag on consumption lies in the persistence of high energy prices, especially for natural gas.  High utility prices for heating are expected to constrain spending somewhat during the winter months...Overall, I expect to see consumption growth of around 3 percent for 2006.

My own view is that we will see growth in the 3 1/4 to 3 1/2 percent range, which encompasses the consensus estimate.

I would expect that employment will grow between 1.5 and 2 million in 2006.

I believe the U.S. economy remains on a path of sustained expansion, and I expect real GDP to grow at a rate of 3-1/2 to 4 percent in 2005. From a policymaker's perspective, that would be a good outcome and a good place for the economy to be.

The U.S. economy is embarked upon a period of sustained expansion. Looking forward, I expect real GDP to grow at a rate of 3-1/2 to 4 percent through 2005. Earlier this year I would have favored the upper end of this range, but recent events have dampened that forecast somewhat toward the lower end of this band. Of course, the price of oil is one factor that will play a role in determining the exact magnitude of this number.

I believe the US economy is embarked upon a period of sustained expansion…And after a mild scare of another 'soft patch' earlier this year, the economy looks to be expanding at a moderate pace. Looking forward, I expect real GDP to grow at a rate of 3-1/2 to 4 percent through 2005. Earlier this year I would have favored the upper end of this range, but recent events have dampened that forecast somewhat.

I expect GDP growth will remain on a very positive path. I think the forecast I made early this year of growth for all of 2005 in the range of 3.5 to 4 percent still seems reasonable.

In the year ahead, the U.S. economy should continue its solid performance, growing nearly 4 percent with productivity growing more than 2.5 percent. Taking a longer view, we will continue to achieve such strong levels of performance if we provide fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies that encourage an open, competitive, progressive, and noninflationary economy—an economy in which the entrepreneur and the American worker can thrive.

Looking forward, the economy appears to be on course for a sustained period of solid expansion. I expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of around 4 percent this year and next, with payroll employment increasing by 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month.

I see real GDP growth of about 4 percent or so this year [2005]. I also expect to see a continuation of the recent acceleration in job creation as the economy continues to expand. And inflation, while elevated over its pace from a year ago, seems likely to be well behaved on the whole.

My own guess is that core PCE inflation in 2005 will be slightly higher than its 2004 rate of 1.6 percent, though likely remaining within what I think of as the "comfort zone" of 1 to 2 percent.

After going through a foggy stretch of road with potholes and sharp turns, the economy seems to be in a stretch of more open highway. While there can always be surprises around the next corner, I would add that my near-term forecast is for more of the same: GDP growth in the 3 to 4 percent range, continued strong business spending growth, steady employment gains along with a continuing decline in the unemployment rates and low inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index in the range of 2 ½ to 3 percent.

A reasonable estimate for trend productivity growth going forward is about 2-1/2 percent per year...And although it would represent a slowing of the outsized, and unsustainable, gains we’ve seen since [the 1995 to 2001 period], it appears fast enough to maintain the favorable inflation results we’ve had in recent years.

Peering into 2005, it seems likely that labor market conditions will continue to improve and that monthly employment gains will probably exceed by a comfortable margin the roughly 125,000 per month necessary to keep the unemployment rate constant. It’s an open question, though, whether we will return to the days when monthly employment gains of 200,000 per month or more were the norm, as they were during the last two business cycle expansions. Today’s era of higher labor productivity growth and increased globalization may tend to limit employment growth.