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Overview: Wed, May 01

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
07:00MBA mortgage prch. indexDown only slightly so far in April despite surging rates
08:15ADP national employment reportAnother solid increase in April
08:30Tsy quarterly refunding announcementNote and bond sizes likely to be unchanged -- buyback plans?
10:00ISM manufacturing PMIMild pullback from March's 18-month high
10:00JOLTS openingsSlight decline expected in March
10:00Construction spendingLittle change expected in March
10:00Treasury press conference webcastMore details on the new buyback program?
11:3017-wk bill auction$60 billion offering
14:00FOMC meeting announcementAdjustments to the Fed's balance sheet runoff?
14:30FOMC press conferenceThe Fed's views on inflation developments will be key
Dom & imp. auto salesIncrease to a year-to-date high in April

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for April 29, 2024

     

    Chair Powell won’t be able to give the market much guidance about the timing of the first rate cut in this week’s press conference.  The disappointing performance of the inflation data in the first quarter has put Fed policy on hold for the indefinite future.  He should, however, be able to provide a timeline for the upcoming cutback in balance sheet runoffs.  There is some chance that the Fed might wait until June to pull the trigger, but we think it is more likely to get the transition out of the way this month.  The Fed’s QT decision, obviously, will hang over the Treasury’s quarterly refunding process this week.  The pro forma quarterly borrowing projections released on Monday will presumably not reflect any change in the pace of SOMA runoffs, so the outlook will probably evolve again after the Fed announcement on Wednesday afternoon.

Discount Window Stigma

Stanley Fischer

Wed, February 10, 2016

There are nonetheless three major sources of concern about potential weaknesses in the new framework for financial crisis management that has been introduced since the Great Financial Crisis. The first is its failure to resolve the problem of stigma--that is, the stigma of borrowing from the central bank at a time when the financial markets are on guard, looking for signs of weakness in individual financial institutions at a time of overall financial stress. Indeed, some of the Dodd-Frank Act reporting requirements may worsen the stigma problem.

The second is a concern that arises from the nature of financial and other crises. It is essential that we build strong frameworks to deal with potential crisis situations, and Dodd-Frank has done that. But these plans need to ensure that the authorities retain the capacity to deal with unanticipated events, for unanticipated events are inevitable. Retaining the needed flexibility may conflict with the desire to reduce moral hazard to a minimum. But, in simple language: Strengthening fire prevention regulations does not imply that the fire brigade should be disbanded.

Third, this concern is heightened by a related problem: The new system has not undergone its own stress test. That is, in one sense, fortunate, for the financial system will undergo its fundamental stress test only when we have to deal with the next potential financial crisis. That day will likely come later than it would have without Dodd-Frank and the excellent work done by regulators in the United States and around the world in strengthening financial institutions and the financial system. But it will come, and when it comes, we will need the flexibility required to deal with it.

Ben Bernanke

Thu, September 30, 2010

Under a framework established by the [Dodd-Frank] act, the Federal Reserve will, by December 1, provide detailed information regarding individual transactions conducted across a range of credit and liquidity programs over the period from December 1, 2007, to July 20, 2010. This information will include the names of counterparties, the date and dollar value of individual transactions, the terms of repayment, and other relevant information. On an ongoing basis, subject to lags specified by the Congress to protect the efficacy of the programs, the Federal Reserve also will routinely provide information regarding the identities of counterparties, amounts financed or purchased and collateral pledged for transactions under the discount window, open market operations, and emergency lending facilities. 

Elizabeth Duke

Thu, February 18, 2010

In theory, it is the higher rate that keeps banks from using the discount window as a regular source of funds. In practice, bankers are quite suspicious that borrowing from the Federal Reserve will bring additional regulatory scrutiny. In my banking days, I always described it as being like borrowing from my father. I was always sure that at some point I would have to answer uncomfortable questions.

Brian Madigan

Thu, August 20, 2009

Indeed, one of the important practical difficulties that confronted the Federal Reserve early in the crisis--and one that appears not to have been anticipated by Bagehot--was the unwillingness of many banks to draw discount window credit because of concerns about stigma.
That unwillingness threatened to undermine the effectiveness of central bank action to combat the crisis. And it was an important motivation behind the decision of the Federal Reserve to establish the Term Auction Facility (TAF) as a means of providing a large volume of term funding to banks through an auction mechanism. The Federal Reserve expected that providing funds through an auction, in which no individual institution can have any assurance of winning funds and where settlement takes place with a lag, would have much less stigma than a standing facility.

MMO Analysis