Absolutely no economic reason for a recession, but ‘we’ll probably have one anyway’

Tue, September 10, 2019


There’s absolutely no economic or financial reason for a U.S. or global recession to occur in the next year or two, but we’re likely to experience one anyway because of political risks, says Lou Crandall, chief economist for Wrightson ICAP and the winner of MarketWatch’s Forecaster of the Month contest for August.

“Recessions are always hard to predict,” says Crandall, who’s been watching the Fed and the economy for three decades. But after looking deeply into the economic data, he concludes that “there’s no reason” for the economy to topple into recession. The usual suspects are missing. For instance, there’s no inventory overhang, nor is monetary policy too tight.