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Near-Term Policy Outlook

Janet Yellen

Mon, February 10, 2014

The Committee has emphasized that a highly accommodative policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after asset purchases end. In addition, the Committee has said since December 2012 that it expects the current low-target range for the Federal Funds Rate to be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent, inflation is projected to be no more than a half percentage point above our 2 percent longer-run goal, and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

In December of last year and again this January, the Committee said that its current expectation based on its assessment of a broad range of measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments is that it is -- that it will likely be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the Federal Funds Rate well past the time that the unemployment rate declines below 6.5 percent, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the 2 percent goal.

Janet Yellen

Mon, February 10, 2014

YELLEN: I think what would cause the Committee to consider a pause is a notable change in the outlook. The Committee, when it decided to begin this process of tapering in measured steps, believed that the outlook was one where we would see continued improvement in the labor market, and inflation moving back up toward 2 percent target. And if incoming data were to cause the Committee, looking broadly at all of the evidence...
MALONEY: What kind of data? What kind of data?
YELLEN: ... question that...
MALONEY: Jobs data? What kind of data?
YELLEN: Well, well, we would be looking at a broad range of data on the labor market, including unemployment, job creation, and many other indicators of labor market performance.
We would also be looking at indicators of spending and growth in the economy because we do need to see growth at an above-trend pace in order to project continued improvement in the labor market. And we noticed -- note that inflation is running well below our objective, and we want to be sure that that is moving back toward our objective.
MALONEY: Well, what would it take for the Fed to consider increasing its asset purchases again, instead of just slowing down its reductions? What would -- what would it take?
YELLEN: Well, I think a significant deterioration in the outlook, either for the job market or concerns -- you know, very serious concerns that inflation would not be moving back up over time. But the Committee's emphasized that purchases are not on a preset course and we will continue to evaluate the evidence.

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