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Current Policy Outlook

Richard Fisher

Mon, November 03, 2014

I was pleased that we dropped the reference to significant in describing the remaining labor-market slack and that wording was included indicating we might well move to raise rates sooner than thus far assumed, should the economy proceed along the trajectory I think we are on. To me, this neutered the adjective considerable in stating the time frame under which we might act. This is why this particular hawk voted yes in support of the statement we released on Wednesday.

Narayana Kocherlakota

Fri, October 31, 2014

Market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have fallen recently to unusually low levels, a decline that I believe reflects that kind of increased downside risk.

There are a number of possible actions that I would have seen as responsive to the evolution of the data. Let me describe two in particular. First, the Committee could have continued to buy $15 billion of longer-term assets per month. Second, it could have committed to keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at its current level at least until the one- to two-year-ahead inflation outlook has risen back to 2 percent, as long as risks to financial stability remain well-contained. These actions would have put upward pressure on the demand for goods and services and on prices. Just as importantly, these actions would have communicated that the Committee is determined to do what it takes to push inflation back to 2 percent as rapidly as is possible.

Jeffrey Lacker

Fri, October 31, 2014

Our objective is to keep inflation under control, so keep it averaging 2 percent, Lacker said today in an interview with Kathleen Hays on Bloomberg Radio. So to my mind, that doesnt mean it has to cross two before the Fed raises rates

It wouldnt surprise me to see softer inflation for a couple of months, but I think if you look a year out, I think well be at 1.5 or higher, Lacker said

Inflation is, I think, a key swing variable in the outlook for when the Fed will raise its benchmark policy rate from zero, where it has been since 2008, Lacker said.

The unemployment rate has continued to decline, and so I think thats dramatically reduced the extent to which we ought to be sort of unhappy about labor market conditions and our employment mandate, he said. On the other hand, inflation has run below two for quite some time now, and the longer that goes on, the more you ought to focus on inflation.

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