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Overview: Tue, May 14

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
06:00NFIB indexLittle change expected in April
08:30PPIMild upward bias due to energy costs
09:10Cook (FOMC voter)
On community development financial institutions
10:00Powell (FOMC voter)Appears at banking event in the Netherlands
11:004-, 8- and 17-wk bill announcementNo changes expected
11:306- and 52-wk bill auction$75 billion and $46 billion respectively

Intraday Updates

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for May 13, 2024


    Abridged Edition.
      Due to technical production issues, this weekend's issue of our newsletter is limited to our regular Treasury and economic indicator calendars.  We will return to our regular format next week.

Regulation

Sandra Pianalto

Thu, March 27, 2008

The question is, do we need to have the same amount of information about their conditions.

From audience Q&A as reported by Market News International, referring to non-bank primary dealers now that they have access to Fed emergency lending facilities.

Randall Kroszner

Thu, March 27, 2008

The proposed requirement to assess repayment ability is intended to protect consumers from abusive practices while maintaining their access to responsible credit. We recognize that satisfying both objectives at the same time is a challenge. The proposed rule's potential for consumer actions, coupled with its careful avoidance of prescribing quantitative underwriting thresholds, could raise compliance and litigation risk. In turn, this could raise the cost of credit for higher-risk borrowers or limit the availability of responsible credit. That is why we have proposed prohibiting a "pattern or practice" of disregarding repayment ability rather than attaching a risk of legal liability to every individual loan that does not perform. Some commentators have argued that the pattern or practice requirement creates a higher standard of proof that can make it more difficult and costly for consumers to pursue litigation. We have specifically sought comment on this provision and look forward to perspectives offered by the industry and consumer groups.

Richard Fisher

Wed, March 26, 2008

The priority focus should be figuring out new ways to enhance liquidity, reduce the fear that people have as counter-party risk
...
We recently opened up our window to lend to what are called primary dealers. I fully expect that in return for that we will get regulatory authority to actually oversee those dealers, to make sure the people we're lending money to are adhering to the principles of good financial behavior.

As reported by Reuters

Alan Greenspan

Sun, March 16, 2008

We will never be able to anticipate all discontinuities in financial markets. Discontinuities are, of necessity, a surprise. Anticipated events are arbitraged away. But if, as I strongly suspect, periods of euphoria are very difficult to suppress as they build, they will not collapse until the speculative fever breaks on its own. Paradoxically, to the extent risk management succeeds in identifying such episodes, it can prolong and enlarge the period of euphoria. But risk management can never reach perfection. It will eventually fail and a disturbing reality will be laid bare, prompting an unexpected and sharp discontinuous response.

In the current crisis, as in past crises, we can learn much, and policy in the future will be informed by these lessons. But we cannot hope to anticipate the specifics of future crises with any degree of confidence. Thus it is important, indeed crucial, that any reforms in, and adjustments to, the structure of markets and regulation not inhibit our most reliable and effective safeguards against cumulative economic failure: market flexibility and open competition.

Alan Greenspan

Sun, March 16, 2008

The crisis will leave many casualties. Particularly hard hit will be much of today’s financial risk-valuation system, significant parts of which failed under stress. Those of us who look to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder equity have to be in a state of shocked disbelief. But I hope that one of the casualties will not be reliance on counterparty surveillance, and more generally financial self-regulation, as the fundamental balance mechanism for global finance.

The problems, at least in the early stages of this crisis, were most pronounced among banks whose regulatory oversight has been elaborate for years. To be sure, the systems of setting bank capital requirements, both economic and regulatory, which have developed over the past two decades will be overhauled substantially in light of recent experience. Indeed, private investors are already demanding larger capital buffers and collateral, and the mavens convened under the auspices of the Bank for International Settlements will surely amend the newly minted Basel II international regulatory accord. Also being questioned, tangentially, are the mathematically elegant economic forecasting models that once again have been unable to anticipate a financial crisis or the onset of recession.

Credit market systems and their degree of leverage and liquidity are rooted in trust in the solvency of counterparties. That trust was badly shaken on August 9 2007 when BNP Paribas revealed large unanticipated losses on US subprime securities. Risk management systems – and the models at their core – were supposed to guard against outsized losses. How did we go so wrong?

The essential problem is that our models – both risk models and econometric models – as complex as they have become, are still too simple to capture the full array of governing variables that drive global economic reality.

Ben Bernanke

Fri, March 14, 2008

In addition to regulations, strong uniform oversight of different types of mortgage lenders is critical to avoiding future problems. Regulatory oversight of mortgage lending has become more challenging as the breadth and depth of this market has grown over the past decade. Other changes, such as the increased role of nonbank mortgage lenders, have added complexity.

Ben Bernanke

Fri, March 14, 2008

Among the practices addressed by our proposal is the use of yield spread premiums (YSPs).6 Many consumers use mortgage brokers to guide them through a complex process and shop for the best deal. Unfortunately, consumers may believe that the broker has a responsibility to get them that best deal, which is not necessarily the case. In fact, the design of YSPs may provide the broker a financial incentive to offer a loan with a higher rate. Consumers who do not understand this point may not shop to their best advantage. Therefore, we would prohibit a lender, for both prime and subprime loans, from paying a broker an amount greater than the consumer agrees to in advance. Brokers would also have to disclose their potential conflict of interest. The combination of stricter regulation and better disclosure will not solve all the problems. We do believe, however, that this proposal will give consumers much better information and raise their awareness of brokers' potential conflict of interest while reducing a broker's incentive to steer a consumer to a higher rate.

6.  A YSP is the present dollar value of the difference between the lowest interest rate the wholesale lenders would have accepted on a particular transaction and the interest rate the broker actually obtained for the lender.  This dollar amount is usually paid to the mortgage broker.  It may also be applied to other loan-related costs, but the Board's proposal concerns only the amount paid to the broker. 

Thomas Hoenig

Fri, March 07, 2008

My own view is that we should consider hard-wiring more sprinkler systems into financial markets and insitutions. One obvious area to look is whether we can improve the risk-based capital approach embodied in Basel II. If capital is to function effectively, it needs to rise as risks increase and be depleted as losses materialize. I think we need to look especially at the procyclical behavior of leverage that we have observed in some large financial institutions, In addition, I believe there may be merit in considering formal liquidity requirements, and perhaps loan-to-value ratios for banks and other financial institutions, especially the large institutions that provide liquidity and risk-management products to other financial institutions and financial markets. I also think that it is time we extinguish some of the off-balance sheet fictions that have developed to excess in recent years.

William Poole

Thu, March 06, 2008

The public policy problem is the danger that, with the sad record of so many mistakes and abuses in recent years, regulatory burdens designed to end the abuses will do so but only at the cost of making subprime lending so costly and risky to lenders that they will have no interest in restoring this market. We should not forget that market discipline imposed by lenders who have suffered extremely large losses is already making it very difficult for anyone to originate subprime mortgages. In time, if new regulatory burdens do not become too great, we should expect to see new practices become standard.

Timothy Geithner

Thu, March 06, 2008

There are a lot of aspects of our regulatory framework that are hard to defend.

From Q&A as reported by Reuters.

Randall Kroszner

Thu, December 06, 2007

Because systematic approaches to dealing with troubled loans are often likely to lead to better aggregate investor returns than foreclosures, we are encouraged by industry efforts to pursue these approaches. When servicers modify loans, however, they may face potential litigation risk from investors because of their contractual obligations under the servicing agreements. One particular source of litigation risk, we understand, may be that different asset classes have conflicting interests. Therefore, we encourage ongoing industry efforts to agree to standards for addressing these issues. We are hopeful that the industry can resolve these conflicts on a consensual basis so that they do not preclude servicers from taking actions that are in the overall best interests of consumers and the industry.

Randall Kroszner

Thu, December 06, 2007

A second issue is the possible imposition of civil money penalties when the enforcement agencies find that there is a pattern or practice of violations. ... We would recommend that the amount of such civil money penalties, if imposed, be given a ceiling as well as a floor because of the market uncertainty that can be introduced by open-ended liability. We would also suggest that some discretion in the actual amount of the penalty, within such a range, be given to the enforcing agencies. This sort of flexibility in enforcement would help the agencies adjust the punishment to fit the infraction.

Eric Rosengren

Mon, December 03, 2007

The question is, should lenders be required to offer fixed rate loans, with the borrowers needing to actively opt out of the fixed rate loan in order to be offered an adjustable rate loan (or, should borrowers always be given, and have to make, a choice). Such proposals are beginning to surface in states (such as Massachusetts) and may be an experiment worth exploring.

Charles Evans

Tue, November 27, 2007

Finally, our most powerful tool for addressing a liquidity crisis is monetary policy. In setting the stance of monetary policy, the Fed has a dual mandate: to help foster maximum employment and price stability. Monetary policy is concerned with mitigating financial market stress to the extent that the stress impedes fulfillment of this dual mandate. Broadly speaking, I see our response to a financial shock as similar to our approach for responding to other shocks to the economy: We gauge the most likely effects of the shock on the future paths for economic activity and inflation; we discuss less likely but more costly alternative outcomes that we may want to insure against; and, based on this analysis, we adjust policy to best fulfill our dual mandate.

Charles Plosser

Tue, November 27, 2007

In my view, the Federal Reserve has two related, but distinct, responsibilities. The first and primary responsibility is monetary policy, which involves ensuring price stability, which contributes to sustainable economic growth. The primary tool of monetary policy is the federal funds rate, and the FOMC meets about every six weeks to determine an appropriate target for the funds rate consistent with these longer-term goals. The Fed’s second responsibility involves promoting financial stability by ensuring that the payment system and financial system function effectively.

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