Nonfarm payrolls have been growing for some time now, and I expect them to continue increasing at an average rate of 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month this year.

I expect [Nonfarm payrolls] to continue increasing at an average rate of 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month this year…Furthermore, research done at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia suggests that job growth in high-wage industries will account for a large portion of total job growth going forward.

Looking forward, the economy appears to be on course for a sustained period of solid expansion. I expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of around 4 percent this year and next, with payroll employment increasing by 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month.

Peering into 2005, it seems likely that labor market conditions will continue to improve and that monthly employment gains will probably exceed by a comfortable margin the roughly 125,000 per month necessary to keep the unemployment rate constant. It’s an open question, though, whether we will return to the days when monthly employment gains of 200,000 per month or more were the norm, as they were during the last two business cycle expansions. Today’s era of higher labor productivity growth and increased globalization may tend to limit employment growth.