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Overview: Fri, June 05

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30Nonfarm payrollsSlight deceleration in May but still a solid increase
15:00Consumer creditApril data

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

US Economy

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for June 1, 2026

     

    Editor’s Note.  Due to staff schedules, this week’s newsletter is limited to our regular Treasury auction and economic indicator calendars.  We will return to our regular format next week.

Measured Pace

Jeffrey Lacker

Mon, June 13, 2005

I think we're fairly accommodative at these rates. I agree the outlook ... as the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) statement reads, is for continued measured increases. I think that it is too early to say when we're going to stop. It's obviously going to be data-dependent.

Anthony Santomero

Fri, June 10, 2005

If the economy evolves as I anticipate over the next year or so, I expect we will continue to move the federal funds rate toward neutrality at a measured pace. But the precise course the Fed takes very much depends on the precise course the economy takes...If signs emanating from the economy suggest that the economy is veering off its most likely course, we will need to consider altering the pace at which we move toward policy neutrality. At the moment, however, this does not seem to be the case.

Anthony Santomero

Fri, June 10, 2005

If the economy evolves as I anticipate over the next year or so I expect we will continue to move the federal funds rate toward neutrality at a measured pace.

William Poole

Tue, May 10, 2005

The FOMC has emphasized that it is prepared, if necessary, to move more aggressively to protect the relatively low rate of core inflation that now exists. Nevertheless, the FOMC’s best judgment at this time is that the target federal funds rate can continue to rise at a measured pace and that this policy will maintain economic growth without rising inflation.

William Poole

Tue, May 10, 2005

Policy will be data-driven when we get data surprises that require a different policy setting..."Measured pace" should not be viewed as an ironclad commitment to a particular outcome at the next meeting.

Donald Kohn

Thu, April 21, 2005

The federal funds rate appears to be below the level that we would expect to be consistent with the maintenance of stable inflation and full employment over the medium run, and, if growth is sustained and inflation remains contained, we are likely to raise rates further at a measured pace.

Janet Yellen

Mon, April 18, 2005

The term 'measured pace' is not a promise; it's a forecast of what the Fed thinks needs to be done to keep the economy on track.  Eventually we'll get to a period where it will be harder to tell markets where things are going because the Fed itself will be a lot less sure of what it needs to do.

Sandra Pianalto

Mon, April 18, 2005

In my view, this ["measured pace"] language has provided useful guidance in the limited time we have used it, but there is a risk that at some point the Committee will take an action that the public regards as contrary to what is implied by the language. To me, this risk suggests that the Committee should provide this type of guidance only when it is highly confident in the course of its near-term policy actions and when it perceives the cost of being misunderstood as exceptionally great.

Susan Bies

Sun, April 17, 2005

Though inflation pressures have risen somewhat in recent months, longer-term inflation expectations appear to have remained well contained. I believe that, while underlying inflation is expected to continue to be low, the Federal Reserve must be more alert to monitoring incoming data, and continue to remove policy accommodation at a measured pace, consistent with the incoming data and its commitment to maintain price stability.

Donald Kohn

Wed, April 13, 2005

The path of interest rates is not an end in itself--it is a means to an end, which is fulfilling our mandate for maximum employment and stable prices. A measured pace of rate increases is our best guess, for now, of what will accomplish these objectives. But that guess is conditional and contingent on our expectations [on how] the economy will evolve.

Donald Kohn

Wed, April 13, 2005

Our view has been that we could probably remove our accommodative policy gradually--"at a measured pace" in our jargon. But that expectation has depended on an outlook for inflation remaining contained and growth only moderately exceeding that of the economy's potential.

Donald Kohn

Wed, April 13, 2005

The FOMC has said that it believes it can remove policy accommodation gradually. That strategy should be successful if...growth ahead is moderate and inflation pressures are contained. Such a strategy has advantages. Importantly, the gradual approach should enable us to better gauge the ongoing effects of our actions in an uncertain world--give us more opportunities to assess the effects of past increases in rates when we know that those effects can vary and will occur with a lag--and hence to calibrate our actions better to the needs of the economy. Moreover, to date, announcing that we expect to remove accommodation at a measured pace has not materially impeded market participants from responding meaningfully to incoming data, primarily by extending the anticipated series of gradual rate increases when these data suggested the potential for greater inflation pressures.

Gary Stern

Wed, March 09, 2005

When [the "measured pace" wording] will change, I don't know...My view is that we will try damn hard to be pretty clear, or as clear as we can be, about what we are up to.

William Poole

Mon, March 07, 2005

At some time before long, the [measured pace] comment will come out of the statement.  But as long as the economy goes along in such a balanced way, moving in such a nice fashion, I would expect it to remain.... At some point, there may be surprises; new information that will make that language inadequate.

William Poole

Wed, January 12, 2005

[The "measured pace" wording] obviously will be taken out at some point because at some point it will be much less clear what the probable, reasonable, correct direction of interest rates is going to be, so at some point it will come out.  But I think it has served a useful purpose.

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