After the economic expansion stumbled in the spring of last year, it now looks to be on a firmer footing. A broad range of economic data suggests that real GDP is growing noticeably above trend...We’ve seen vigorous growth in business spending and solid growth in consumer spending.

[The economy has been growing] close to 4% at an annual rate, and that's a perfectly respectable pace and, frankly, the pace that I think will continue; something in that rough neighborhood.

By reducing the need for domestic production of goods and services, the trade deficit subtracted about three quarters of a percentage point from real GDP growth in the first half of this year. Whether the trade gap will narrow depends—in part—on the strength of economic growth among our trading partners, because that affects demand for our exports. However, most of our major trading partners have had only moderate growth recently. So long as these conditions prevail, they won’t provide much impetus for growth in our own economy.

After going through a foggy stretch of road with potholes and sharp turns, the economy seems to be in a stretch of more open highway. While there can always be surprises around the next corner, I would add that my near-term forecast is for more of the same: GDP growth in the 3 to 4 percent range, continued strong business spending growth, steady employment gains along with a continuing decline in the unemployment rates and low inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index in the range of 2 ½ to 3 percent.

Given the GDP has been so close to expectation, the slightly slower-than-expected job growth is just the flip side of the somewhat greater-than-anticipated productivity growth.

[The retirement of the Baby Boom generation] creates a very significant slowing in the rate of economic growth because, obviously, the rate of growth of the working-age population relative to total goes down.  And even with productivity going at a reasonably good clip, it, under most scenarios, shows the rate of growth in GDP per capita must slow down.

I think that we will see our GDP growth will once again be in the neighborhood of 3.5 to 4 percent, perhaps a little more modest than 2004, but still very healthy growth above our long-run potential growth rate.

Trend productivity growth seems likely to settle down to something around 2½ percent—a respectable estimate of its sustainable rate. In that scenario, real GDP growth of 4 to 4½ percent for 2005 seems pretty reasonable. ... Given all the unpredictable things that can happen, a point forecast of 4 percent growth over the four quarters of 2005 should really be expressed as a growth rate of 4 plus or minus 1¼ percent.

The U.S. economy, as I indicated, is growing in 2004, the data says, slightly less than four percent. I’m predicting 3.5 to four percent. That's slightly above potential.

Looking forward, I expect real GDP to expand at a 3.5 to 4 percent rate through 2005.

The declining value of the dollar, combined with reasonable growth in the economies of our trading partners, should help stabilize our net export position in 2005. As the trade deficit stabilizes, solid growth in spending by U.S. consumers and businesses should translate directly into solid growth in GDP.

The most likely answer is the economy will grow again at about 4 percent or so.  I also expect to see some acceleration in job creation as the economy continues to expand.  And inflation seems likely to be well behaved, at least over the near term. 

I would say that our recent output growth has been and should remain pretty doggone good.

I’m comfortable with consensus forecasts for annualized GDP growth for this year of about 3 ½ to 4 percent.

GDP growth seems most likely to lie in the three and one half to four percent range next year, barring a large unforeseen economic shock.