When I say that policy should be responsive to the data, I mean that any additional firming should depend on how emerging developments affect the economic outlook. And when I say data, I don't just mean data on inflation, output, and employment. I also mean data on factors that might affect those variables in the future—such as energy prices, the dollar, the stock market, long-term interest rates, housing prices and inflation expectations.

A danger in relying on the FOMC’s own forecasts of its policy direction is that the market will focus on these forecasts and not on the underlying rationale.  Were that to happen, the market will inevitably be surprised when events require policy actions that differ from the FOMC’s own forecasts.