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Overview: Tue, May 14

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
06:00NFIB indexLittle change expected in April
08:30PPIMild upward bias due to energy costs
09:10Cook (FOMC voter)
On community development financial institutions
10:00Powell (FOMC voter)Appears at banking event in the Netherlands
11:004-, 8- and 17-wk bill announcementNo changes expected
11:306- and 52-wk bill auction$75 billion and $46 billion respectively

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for May 13, 2024


    Abridged Edition.
      Due to technical production issues, this weekend's issue of our newsletter is limited to our regular Treasury and economic indicator calendars.  We will return to our regular format next week.

Employment

Alan Greenspan

Sun, November 13, 2005

Flexibility is most readily achieved by fostering an environment of maximum competition. A key element in creating this environment is flexible labor markets. Many working people equate labor market flexibility with job insecurity. Despite that perception, flexible labor policies appear to promote job creation. An increased capacity of management to discharge workers without excessive cost, for example, apparently increases companies' willingness to hire without fear of unremediable mistakes. The net effect, to the surprise of most, has been what appears to be a decline in the structural unemployment rate in the United States over the past quarter century.  Protectionism in all its guises, both domestic and international, does not contribute to the welfare of workers. At best, it is a short-term fix for a few workers at a cost of lower standards of living for a nation as a whole. Increased education and training for those displaced by creative destruction is the answer, not a stifling of competition.

Thomas Hoenig

Tue, October 04, 2005

As economic growth returned [in the latest recovery], firms found that they could meet the increased demand for goods and services without hiring additional workers.  This resulted in strong gains to productivity, which is an important source of long-term growth for the economy, but it meant that employment gains were weaker than in prior recoveries.

William Poole

Mon, October 03, 2005

Market sentiment has coalesced around the view that news about employment growth is a significant influence on the path of the intended funds rate in the forseeable future...My emphasis on market reaction to employment surprises does not mean that the market ignores inflation.  What has happened in recent years is that core inflation--inflation excluding effects of food and energy--simply has not generated significant surprises.

Janet Yellen

Wed, September 07, 2005

The national unemployment rate has gradually dropped to 4.9 percent, which is near conventional estimates of the natural rate consistent with "full employment."

Anthony Santomero

Tue, August 30, 2005

With the kind of growth I am projecting — moderately above the economy's long-run potential — we will continue to add new jobs at a healthy pace, without creating undue inflationary pressures. This, in turn, positions us to settle into a prolonged period of sustained expansion.

Anthony Santomero

Tue, August 30, 2005

Nonfarm payrolls have been growing for some time now...hiring is up and recruiters have returned to campus. In fact, over the past 12 months, non-farm payroll gains have averaged 185,000 per month, somewhat above the figure that many economists believe is necessary to keep pace with growth in the labor force. As a result, the unemployment rate has slowly drifted down, and now stands at 5 percent, which is relatively low by historical standards.

Anthony Santomero

Tue, August 30, 2005

I expect employment growth to continue in the range of 150,000 to 200,000 jobs per month this year, and obviously, this would be a welcome pattern in an economy that had struggled to add jobs in this cycle.

Anthony Santomero

Tue, August 30, 2005

With the unemployment rate at 5 percent, we must also begin to ask how much slack remains in the labor market...By at least one measure, there may not be much...Once a year, we ask the [Survey of Professional Forecasters] participants for their estimate of the economy's “natural rate” of unemployment...In our most recent survey, released this month, the median of the estimates of the natural rate of unemployment was 5 percent. This suggests to me that we may begin seeing some tightness in the labor markets soon, and some upward pressure on wages and prices.

Alan Greenspan

Tue, July 19, 2005

[Globalization] undoubtedly enhances standards of living worldwide.  And indeed, those economies that engage in international freight have invariably been boosted...But that process is very disruptive, and indeed, it's associated with a very large turnover of the labor force.

Alan Greenspan

Tue, July 19, 2005

The very most recent data do suggest that there is an increasing return of self-employed to the corporate sector more generally...One of the reasons I suspect it's probably happening is that medical costs being provided by...corporate organizations are attractive to a number who are not doing as well self-employed as they would like.

Alan Greenspan

Tue, July 19, 2005

We are getting a bivariate income distribution...For a democratic society, this is not healthful, to say the least...I believe this is an education problem that requires us to get the balance of skills coming out of our schools to match the skills that our physical facilities require.

Alan Greenspan

Wed, June 22, 2005

A policy to dismantle the global trading system in a misguided effort to protect jobs from competition would redound to the eventual detriment of all U.S. job seekers, as well as of millions of American consumers.  Policy should aim to bolster the well-being of job losers through retraining and unemployment insurance, not to stave off job loss through counterproductive efforts to impede the process of income-enhancing international trade and globalization.

Alan Greenspan

Wed, June 22, 2005

Some observers mistakenly believe that a marked increase in the exchange value of the renminbi relative to the US dollar would significantly increase manufacturing activity and jobs in the United States.  I am aware of no credible evidence that supports such a conclusion.

Mark Olson

Wed, June 22, 2005

The understanding that sustainable communities are as dependent on the creation of good jobs as they are on the availability of decent, affordable housing is, I believe, a relatively new construct in our political discourse.

Sandra Pianalto

Wed, June 15, 2005

I think it is time to stop focusing on short-run job losses, as difficult as they are. We must start focusing more on the long-run adaptability of our businesses and our capacity to grow new ones. The jobs will follow...We need to shift the focus from preserving the past to creating the future.

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MMO Analysis