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Overview: Tue, May 14

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
06:00NFIB indexLittle change expected in April
08:30PPIMild upward bias due to energy costs
09:10Cook (FOMC voter)
On community development financial institutions
10:00Powell (FOMC voter)Appears at banking event in the Netherlands
11:004-, 8- and 17-wk bill announcementNo changes expected
11:306- and 52-wk bill auction$75 billion and $46 billion respectively

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for May 13, 2024


    Abridged Edition.
      Due to technical production issues, this weekend's issue of our newsletter is limited to our regular Treasury and economic indicator calendars.  We will return to our regular format next week.

Dual Mandate

Charles Evans

Mon, October 17, 2011

I believe that we can substantially ease the public’s concern that monetary policy will become restrictive in the near to medium term and, hence, reduce the restraint in expanding economic activity. This can be done by clearly spelling out in our policy statements the conditionality of our dual mandate responsibilities. What should such a statement look like? I think we should consider committing to keep short-term rates at zero until either the unemployment rate goes below 7 percent or the outlook for inflation over the medium term goes above 3 percent. Such policies should enable us to make progress toward our mandated goals. But if this progress is too slow, then we should move forward with increased purchases of longer-term securities. We might even consider a regime in which we reevaluate our progress toward our policy goals and the rate of purchase of such assets at every FOMC meeting.

Charles Evans

Wed, September 07, 2011

The Fed’s current commitment to record-low interest rates should be made contingent on pushing the unemployment rate to around 7 percent or 7.5 percent, as long as inflation stays below 3 percent in the medium term, the 53-year-old regional bank chief said today in a speech in London.

“Given how truly badly we are doing in meeting our employment mandate, I argue that the Fed should seriously consider actions that would add very significant amounts of policy accommodation,” he said. “Such further policy accommodation does increase the risk that inflation could rise temporarily above our long-term goal of 2 percent.”

Charles Plosser

Thu, June 09, 2011

Expectations are well-anchored until they are not. So it is somewhat troubling to me that expectations of inflation in the medium to longer term are moving up and down as much as they are. It suggests that the public and the markets may not have as much confidence in the Fed’s ability, or willingness, to deliver on its price stability mandate.

Charles Evans

Fri, April 15, 2011

[E]ven if there were stronger evidence of [an asset] bubble, I’m not convinced that leaning against it is good policy. Even if the Fed could accurately detect a bubble in real time, and even if we decided that a bubble-pricking exercise would be warranted, monetary policy is too blunt an instrument for this task... Our attempts to counter a hypothetical future bubble would end up weakening our efforts to achieve the stabilization benefits embodied in the dual mandate.

Charles Plosser

Thu, April 14, 2011

Less than a year ago the prevailing concern was not that inflation was becoming too high but that it was becoming too low. Indeed, some feared that the U.S. economy was on the verge of a deflationary spiral. I was not one of them; nor do I believe that we are in imminent danger of a strong acceleration in inflation. Yet the swing in views does concern me. It suggests that the public’s confidence in the Federal Reserve’s commitment to maintain price stability is not as firmly established as I would like.

Charles Evans

Thu, February 17, 2011

To put it bluntly, with unemployment too high and inflation too low — and both forecasted to stay that way over the next two years — we have missed on both of our policy objectives. There is currently no policy conflict between improving the employment and inflation outcomes. This leads me to conclude that accommodative monetary policy continues to be beneficial for achieving each of these goals.

Elizabeth Duke

Wed, February 02, 2011

The ability to make monetary policy decisions that are free of short-term political influence is critical for central banks. This is especially true because the effective conduct of monetary policy requires a long-term perspective. A central bank that is subject to political pressure might opt for policies that favor rapid expansion in the near term at the expense of higher inflation in the future. Such actions would surely result in the loss of the confidence and credibility that are needed to achieve the objectives of monetary policy.

Charles Evans

Fri, January 07, 2011

Evans said that, even if it was only charged with maintaining price stability, the fact that the Fed is "undershooting" its inflation target "dictates a highly accommodative policy." Arguing that "substantial accommodation" is warranted, he said the so-called Taylor Rule would call for the federal funds rate to be cut to minus 4% under current circumstances were it possible.

As reported by MarketNews

Ben Bernanke

Fri, January 07, 2011

Senator, we're not seeking any change. We think the current mandate is workable. That being said, I think it's entirely appropriate for the Senate to -- and for the Congress to consider what mandate they want to set. There are, after all, central banks around the world that do focus primarily on price stability. And whatever decision the Congress makes of course we will -- we will honor that decision, and pursue that mandate.

During the Q&A, in response to a question about the dual mandate.

Ben Bernanke

Fri, October 15, 2010

The Federal Reserve has a statutory mandate to foster maximum employment and price stability, and explaining how we are working toward those goals plays a crucial role in our monetary policy strategy. It is evident that neither of our dual objectives can be taken in isolation...

Recognizing the interactions between the two parts of our mandate, the FOMC has found it useful to frame our dual mandate in terms of the longer-run sustainable rate of unemployment and the mandate-consistent inflation rate. The longer-run sustainable rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment that the economy can maintain without generating upward or downward pressure on inflation...  Similarly, the mandate-consistent inflation rate--the inflation rate that best promotes our dual objectives in the long run--is not necessarily zero; indeed, Committee participants have generally judged that a modestly positive inflation rate over the longer run is most consistent with the dual mandate. (The view that policy should aim for an inflation rate modestly above zero is shared by virtually all central banks around the world.)...  Several rationales can be provided for this judgment, including upward biases in the measurement of inflation. A rationale that is particularly relevant today is that maintaining an "inflation buffer" (that is, an average inflation rate greater than zero) allows for a somewhat higher average level of nominal interest rates, which in turn gives the Federal Reserve greater latitude to reduce the target federal funds rate when needed to stimulate increased economic activity and employment.

 

Charles Plosser

Tue, December 02, 2008

In general, we should avoid giving the Fed overly broad mandates, missions, or goals that conflict with the one goal that is uniquely the responsibility of a central bank: price stability. As I noted earlier, instability in the general level of prices — whether inflation or deflation — is itself a significant source of financial instability. Consequently, we must make sure that in trying to cure one source of financial instability, we do not sow the seeds of another.

Janet Yellen

Thu, September 04, 2008

[S]lower economic growth has pushed up the national unemployment rate to 5.7 percent—almost a full percentage point above the level that, in my view, is consistent with "full employment."

Thomas Hoenig

Mon, September 01, 2008

For the Federal Reserve, adding a more explicity financial stability mandate to its existing dual mandate for price stability and economic growth raises important and difficult questions about the compatibility of these responsibilities and the problems that might arise in attempting to achieve them all simultaneously.

...

I would like to focus on the following four questions as particularly important to our understanding of how financial stability fits into a central bank’s portfolio of responsibilities.

First, can we define a set of principles to guide a central bank’s mandate for financial stability?... 

Second, does a central bank have the ability to effectively pursue a tripartite mandate?...

Third, how does a central bank trade off potentially conflicting objectives under a tripartite mandate?...

 Finally, how can a central bank implement a financial stability mandate while maintaining the independence needed to actively pursue its other mandates?...

 …While there is little doubt that central banks will continue to have responsibility for financial stability going forward, recent events raise important questions about how this mandate should be implemented.

Richard Fisher

Wed, May 28, 2008

You might wonder why a central banker would be concerned with fiscal matters. Fiscal policy is, after all, the responsibility of the Congress, not the Federal Reserve. Congress, and Congress alone, has the power to tax and spend. From this monetary policymaker’s point of view, though, deficits matter for what we do at the Fed. There are many reasons why. Economists have found that structural deficits raise long-run interest rates, complicating the Fed’s dual mandate to develop a monetary policy that promotes sustainable, noninflationary growth. The even more disturbing dark and dirty secret about deficits—especially when they careen out of control—is that they create political pressure on central bankers to adopt looser monetary policy down the road.
...
Earlier I mentioned the Fed’s dual mandate to manage growth and inflation. In the long run, growth cannot be sustained if markets are undermined by inflation. Stable prices go hand in hand with achieving sustainable economic growth. I have said many, many times that inflation is a sinister beast that, if uncaged, devours savings, erodes consumers’ purchasing power, decimates returns on capital, undermines the reliability of financial accounting, distracts the attention of corporate management, undercuts employment growth and real wages, and debases the currency.

Purging rampant inflation and a debased currency requires administering a harsh medicine. We have been there, and we know the cure that was wrought by the FOMC under Paul VolckerEven the perception that the Fed is pursuing a cheap-money strategy to accommodate fiscal burdens, should it take root, is a paramount risk to the long-term welfare of the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve will never let this happen. It is not an option. Ever. Period.

Gary Stern

Wed, May 28, 2008

Right now, I think we are seeing challenges on both sides of that (dual mandate) and I think we are simply going to have to navigate the minefield...We have to take care that the policies we have pursued to date do not compromise the achievement of our dual mandate, and in particular, our objective of sustained low inflation.

As reported by Reuters.

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MMO Analysis