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Overview: Fri, June 05

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30Nonfarm payrollsSlight deceleration in May but still a solid increase
15:00Consumer creditApril data

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

US Economy

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for June 1, 2026

     

    Editor’s Note.  Due to staff schedules, this week’s newsletter is limited to our regular Treasury auction and economic indicator calendars.  We will return to our regular format next week.

Adverse Feedback Loop

Dennis Lockhart

Thu, February 07, 2008

I believe recent actions helped address the risks to the economic forecast I just referenced—that is, weakness in the first half of 2008 followed by improvement in the second half, with inflation moderating from recent levels. The liquidity injections and easing of monetary policy should help housing and financial markets stabilize and avoid an "adverse feedback loop" in which a continuing decline in housing prices fuels financial market volatility with spillover to the broader economy.

Frederic Mishkin

Fri, January 11, 2008

[S]trains in financial markets can spill over to the broader economy and have adverse consequences on output and employment. Furthermore, an economic downturn tends to generate even greater uncertainty about asset values, which could initiate an adverse feedback loop in which the financial disruption restrains economic activity; such a situation could lead to greater uncertainty and increased financial disruption, causing a further deterioration in macroeconomic activity, and so on. In the academic literature, this phenomenon is generally referred to as the financial accelerator (Bernanke and Gertler, 1989; Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist, 1996, 1999).

Frederic Mishkin

Mon, November 05, 2007

By cutting interest rates to offset the negative effects of financial turmoil on aggregate economic activity, monetary policy can reduce the likelihood that a financial disruption might set off an adverse feedback loop.  The resulting reduction in uncertainty can then make it easier for the markets to collect the information that enables price discovery and to hasten the return to normal market functioning.  

To achieve this result most effectively, monetary policy needs to be timely, decisive, and flexible.  Quick action is important for a central bank once it realizes that an episode of financial instability has the potential to set off a perverse sequence of events that pose a threat to its core objectives.  Waiting too long to ease policy in such a situation would only risk a further deterioration in macroeconomic conditions and thus would arguably only increase the amount of easing that would eventually be needed. 

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