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Overview: Tue, March 19

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30Housing startsPartial recovery after big January decline
11:004-, 8- and 17-wk bill announcement$5 billion reductions expected in the 4- & 8-week bills
11:306- and 52-wk bill auction$75 billion and $46 billion respectively
13:0020-yr bond (r) auction$13 billion offering
16:00Tsy intl cap flowsJanuary data

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for March 18, 2024

     

    This week’s FOMC meeting probably won’t shed much light on the outlook for the first rate cut.  The Fed would like to ease but probably won’t be in a position to do so until June at the earliest.  In a close call, we (like many market participants) expect the dot plot to continue to imply three quarter-point rate cuts this year.  However, the median FOMC estimate of the long-term equilibrium funds rate may finally move up a notch to 2.625% and the balance-of-risks diffusion index for the growth outlook may turn positive for the first time since early 2021.  Chair Powell should also give us an overview of the FOMC’s preliminary QT tapering discussion, but the Committee probably won’t come to any firm decisions about shifts in the pace of its asset runoffs this week.

MMO Analysis