Daily Summary

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for Friday, October 31, 2014

Agenda

TimeIndicator/EventComment
03:00Williams (FOMC non-voter)At South African Reserve Bank
08:30Employment cost indexNot quite as stong as in previous quarter
08:30Personal consumptionNominal spending flat but real PCE probably down slightly in September
09:00Milwaukee PMIModerate decline from high September level
09:45Chicago PMIISM-weighted index probably down a bit from high September level
09:55U. Michigan cons. sent., lateLittle change from preliminary October reading

Intraday Updates

[8:30 Data]  The employment cost index was a little stronger than expected in the three months ended in September.  Consumption spending was even weaker than projected in September, and PCE prices were as soft as anticipated. 

[9:45 Data]  The regional factory surveys for October ended the month on a very strong note.

[9:55 Data]   The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index surprised us (slightly) on the high side again. more »

Economic Indicators

Inflation trends will be a recurring theme running through this morning’s economic calendar. The PCE price data and the employment cost index for September are due out at 8:30, and the inflation expectations indexes will be one of the focal points in the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment report at 9:55. Other data due out today include monthly consumption spending in the PCE report, which is likely to be soft, and the final set of regional factory surveys, which may be down a little but solid in absolute terms. more »

Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market

Overnight Funding Monitor Daily GCF repo forecasts more »

Fed Data The regional distribution of term deposit facility awards was roughly proportional to the regional distribution of traditional reserve balances again this week. Dealer positions in Treasury bills retreated in the week of October 22, as did net dealer financing of Treasury securities in the overnight market. The Fed’s custody holdings of Treasuries for foreign official institutions fell again in the latest week. more »

Treasury Finance

Treasury cash flows table more »

The Money Market Observer

Monday, Oct 27 Bill issuance patterns and Treasury cash management practices may be among the key points in next week’s Treasury refunding announcement. The Treasury in recent weeks appears to have embraced recommendations that it should hold a larger precautionary cash balance. It also appears to be adjusting its weekly bill sizes more aggressively than in the past to smooth out future seasonal cash flow swings. Looking ahead, we expect the Treasury to allow its cash balance to run up sharply at the end of December rather than exacerbate the year-end liquidity squeeze by paying down bills after the corporate tax date. more »

Daily Press Summary (pdf)

ICAP's Inside Debt Report for Thursday, Oct 30 ICAP's Inside Debt provides relevant end-of-day news summaries and market sector commentary from Reuters for the FOREX, Treasuries, Corporates and Equities markets, a 3 pm EST market snapshot pricing of all market sectors from ICAP and economic data from Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »

Daily Press Summary Archive go »

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