|08:30||Advance international trade||Seasonal adjustment revisions will muddy the waters|
|08:30||Jobless claims||Still exceptionally low|
|10:00||Brainard (FOMC voter)||On international economic policymaking|
|11:00||4-, 13- & 26-week bill announcement||All unchanged; possible CMB announcement|
|11:00||Kansas City Fed index||Likely to level out after prior month decline|
|13:00||7-yr note auction||Another $28 billion offering|
|22:00||Bullard (FOMC non-voter)||On US economy and monetary policy|
The main event on today’s calendar is the advance trade report for April, with our estimate calling for a slight narrowing of the nominal goods deficit. In the jobless claims report, we don’t expect much change in initial claims but we think continuing claims may rebound somewhat from last week’s very low level. The Kansas City Fed factory index may hold steady at last month’s moderate level.
We don’t think the minutes told us anything about the FOMC’s near-term rate hike inclinations (June is still a go; September is still a question mark), but the committee did make more progress on the balance-sheet normalization front than we expected.
Today’s bill announcements: 4-, 13- and 26-week bills
Today’s coupon auction: 7-year notes
The Treasury released its latest annual survey of foreign holdings of U.S. securities at the end of April. The results are somewhat out of date, as the survey covered positions as of last June. Some of the details in the report were of interest nonetheless. Aggregate foreign holdings of longer-dated Treasury and GSE securities were on the rise in 2016, while the public/private breakdown of foreign holdings of Treasury index-linked and floating-rate securities was in flux.