|08:30||Durable goods||Broadbased January increase, led by aircraft|
|10:00||Pending home sales||May edge lower in January|
|10:30||Dallas Fed manufacturing survey||Down slightly from very strong January level|
|11:00||Kaplan (FOMC voter)||At University of Oklahoma|
|11:00||4-week bill announcement|
|11:30||3- and 6-month bill auction||Steady at current levels|
The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February should improve on the preliminary reading, but may remain a bit below its January level. New home sales for January should reverse most or all of their surprising December drop.
A March rate hike seems increasingly likely. The Fed has set the bar for further tightening relatively low, and the economic data are running ahead of expectations. Separately, this week’s newsletter looks (rather inconclusively) at the curious relationship between tri-party repo volumes and inter-dealer GCF rates.