Overview: Thu, August 25

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30Durable goodsShould recover much of last month's decline
08:30Jobless claimsCould be boosted by Louisiana flooding
09:45Markit services PMI (flash)Moderately positive again in August
11:003- and 6-month bill announcementLikely steady at current levels
11:00Kansas City Fed indexSomewhat less negative this month
13:007-yr note auction$28 billion offering
16:00Jackson Hole agenda officially releasedFull schedule for Friday and Saturday
18:30George (FOMC voter)Meeting with Fed Up critics

US Economy

  • Economic Indicator Preview for Thursday, August 25, 2016

    The advance durable goods report for July is the main event on today’s calendar.  We look for a partial rebound in orders from a big June decline, mainly reflecting fluctuations in the lumpy civilian aircraft category.   In today’s other reports, initial claims could be biased slightly higher this week by the flooding in Louisiana while the Kansas City factory index could be slightly less negative this month than in July.

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for August 22, 2016

    If last week’s FOMC minutes are any guide, Chair Yellen may try to strike a generally confident tone in her Jackson Hole remarks on Friday while being noncommittal about the near-term rate hike.  More broadly, we suspect that Fed attendees at Jackson Hole will be noncommittal about this year’s central theme, which is “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future”.  The Fed is quite mindful of the challenges it still faces in laying out an operational roadmap for the post-normalization world, and is in no rush to commit itself prematurely.  This week’s MMO looks at a few of the long-run implementation issues mentioned in last week’s FOMC minutes, and especially the question of finding ways around the stigma problems that afflict the discount window. 


Federal Reserve Commentary

MMO Analysis