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Overview: Thu, May 25

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30Advance international tradeSeasonal adjustment revisions will muddy the waters
08:30Jobless claimsStill exceptionally low
10:00Brainard (FOMC voter)On international economic policymaking
11:004-, 13- & 26-week bill announcementAll unchanged; possible CMB announcement
11:00Kansas City Fed indexLikely to level out after prior month decline
13:007-yr note auctionAnother $28 billion offering
22:00Bullard (FOMC non-voter)On US economy and monetary policy

US Economy

  • Economic Indicator Preview for Thursday, May 25, 2017

    The main event on today’s calendar is the advance trade report for April, with our estimate calling for a slight narrowing of the nominal goods deficit. In the jobless claims report, we don’t expect much change in initial claims but we think continuing claims may rebound somewhat from last week’s very low level. The Kansas City Fed factory index may hold steady at last month’s moderate level.

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

  • Fed Highlights for Thursday, May 25, 2017

    We don’t think the minutes told us anything about the FOMC’s near-term rate hike inclinations (June is still a go; September is still a question mark), but the committee did make more progress on the balance-sheet normalization front than we expected.

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for May 22, 2017

    The Treasury released its latest annual survey of foreign holdings of U.S. securities at the end of April.  The results are somewhat out of date, as the survey covered positions as of last June.  Some of the details in the report were of interest nonetheless.  Aggregate foreign holdings of longer-dated Treasury and GSE securities were on the rise in 2016, while the public/private breakdown of foreign holdings of Treasury index-linked and floating-rate securities was in flux. 

Federal Reserve Commentary

MMO Analysis