|08:30||Chicago Fed NAI||Should rebound from August decline|
|09:00||Dudley (FOMC voter)||At Tsy market structure conference|
|09:05||Bullard (FOMC voter)||On the economy and monetary policy|
|09:45||Markit mfg PMI (flash)||Modestly above breakeven|
|11:00||4-week bill announcement||An unchanged $45 billion offering expected|
|11:30||3- and 6-month bill auction||4th consecutive week at current levels|
|13:30||Evans (FOMC non-voter)||In Chicago|
|14:00||Powell (FOMC voter)||At Tsy market structure conference|
|15:00||Treasury investor class auction data||Mid-October data|
The highlight of this week’s economic calendar is the advance estimate of Q3 GDP on Friday. We look for a middling growth rate of 2% or so, but surprises are possible in either direction. Today’s schedule is limited to the Chicago Fed’s national tracking estimate, which is likely to suggest that growth was close to or only slightly below trend in September.
Today’s bill announcement: 4-week bills
Today’s bill auctions: 3- & 6-month bills
The Treasury has asked for market feedback on the possibility of replacing its monthly 7-year note auctions with a combination of quarterly new issues and scheduled reopenings. Our guess is that any such shift would leave the aggregate supply of new 7-year notes essentially unchanged, while allowing the Treasury to improve liquidity in that sector by concentrating the existing supply in fewer CUSIPs.