|08:30||Chicago Fed NAI||Very strong in February|
|10:30||Dallas Fed manufacturing survey||Little change expected this month|
|11:00||4-week bill announcement||A sizable reduction expected|
|11:30||3- and 6-month bill auction||Steady at $51 billion and $45 billion|
|13:00||2-yr note auction||$2 billion increase to $30 billion|
|16:30||Mester (FOMC voter)||On monetary policy|
The pace of economic releases will start out slowly this morning, but will pick up as the week progresses. The only items on this morning’s calendar are the Chicago Fed’s national tracking index (well above trend in February) and the Dallas Fed regional factory survey (probably steady at a high level).
Today’s bill announcement: 4-week bills
Today’s bill auctions: 3- and 6-month bills
Today’s coupon auction: 2-year notes
There is little doubt that the Fed will raise rates this week, and our guess is that Wednesday’s dot-plot will suggest a somewhat more hawkish policy stance for 2019 and 2020 as well. Separately, the spread between the IOER rate and the effective fed funds rate tightened a week sooner than we anticipated. We continue to expect another one-basis-point tightening in June.