|08:30||Retail sales||Moderate increases in core and total sales|
|08:30||Import prices||Higher fuel prices will boost the headline index in November|
|08:30||Jobless claims||Little change expected in latest week|
|09:45||Markit mfg PMI (flash)||Stable near recent levels|
|10:00||Business inventories||Advance Commerce Department estimates suggest slight decline in October|
|11:00||3- and 6-month bill announcement||Likely steady at current levels|
|11:00||5-yr TIPS (r) announcement||$14 billion offering expected|
Retail sales are likely to post only moderate gains in November, while unemployment insurance claims may remain close to last week’s levels. Import prices will get a boost from higher energy prices.
The tone of Chair Yellen’s press conference and the FOMC’s updated forecasts was considerably less hawkish than we anticipated.
Today’s bill announcements: 3- and 6-month bills
Today’s coupon announcement: 5-year TIPS reopening
Chair Yellen is likely to keep things simple in her final quarterly press conference. The FOMC will stay on schedule with another rate hike, and we don’t expect any fireworks in the messaging that accompanies this week’s policy move.