|07:00||MBA mortgage prch. index||Small pullback possible after last week's jump|
|08:30||FRBNY business leaders survey||January service sector data|
|09:15||Industrial production||Solid increase expected in December|
|10:00||NAHB index||May pull back slightly from very high December level|
|14:00||Beige book||Growth more "moderate" than "modest"?|
|15:00||Evans (FOMC non-voter)||On economy and monetary policy|
|16:00||Tsy intl cap flows||November data|
|16:30||Mester (FOMC voter)||On monetary policy communication|
|Reserve maint. period ends|
Industrial production seems likely to post a relatively large increase in December, driven mostly by an uptick in utility output. We think the odds favor at least a modest pullback in the NAHB index from last month’s 18-year high.
We have revised our debt ceiling forecasts, and now expect the drop-dead date to arrive in early March rather than in the second half of that month. Also, the discussion agenda for the Treasury’s Q1 dealer meetings asked for comments about the possibility of introducing a new bill maturity and/or adding a second bill settlement date each week.