|08:30||GDP||Rebound in Q2 - annual revisions also due|
|08:30||Employment cost index||YOY growth rate due to tick up|
|09:30||Williams (FOMC non-voter)||On what's left in the Fed's policy toolkit|
|09:45||Chicago PMI||Solid reading in July|
|10:00||U. Michigan cons. sent., late||Modest rebound from early July level|
|13:00||Kaplan (FOMC non-voter)||Q&A at community bankers' meeting|
This week’s most important economic indicators come out at 8:30 this morning. We look for a 2.8% increase in GDP in Q2, and we expect the YOY growth rate of the employment cost index to jump well above 2% in the June report. Also due today are the Chicago PMI at 9:45 and the final July consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan at 10:00.
While the FOMC won’t raise rates at its July meeting, the economic data due out at the end of this week should bolster the case for a rate hike at the next meeting in September. The year-over-year growth rate of the ECI should improve, and GDP should be strong enough on the surface to meet the FOMC’s growth requirements. This week’s calendar also includes new “advance” estimates of business inventories that are designed to take a little of the guesswork out of the initial GDP report for each quarter.