|08:30||Durable goods||Should recover much of last month's decline|
|08:30||Jobless claims||Could be boosted by Louisiana flooding|
|09:45||Markit services PMI (flash)||Moderately positive again in August|
|11:00||3- and 6-month bill announcement||Likely steady at current levels|
|11:00||Kansas City Fed index||Somewhat less negative this month|
|13:00||7-yr note auction||$28 billion offering|
|16:00||Jackson Hole agenda officially released||Full schedule for Friday and Saturday|
|18:30||George (FOMC voter)||Meeting with Fed Up critics|
The advance durable goods report for July is the main event on today’s calendar. We look for a partial rebound in orders from a big June decline, mainly reflecting fluctuations in the lumpy civilian aircraft category. In today’s other reports, initial claims could be biased slightly higher this week by the flooding in Louisiana while the Kansas City factory index could be slightly less negative this month than in July.
Today’s bill announcements: 3- & 6-month bills
Today’s coupon auction: 7-year notes
If last week’s FOMC minutes are any guide, Chair Yellen may try to strike a generally confident tone in her Jackson Hole remarks on Friday while being noncommittal about the near-term rate hike. More broadly, we suspect that Fed attendees at Jackson Hole will be noncommittal about this year’s central theme, which is “Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future”. The Fed is quite mindful of the challenges it still faces in laying out an operational roadmap for the post-normalization world, and is in no rush to commit itself prematurely. This week’s MMO looks at a few of the long-run implementation issues mentioned in last week’s FOMC minutes, and especially the question of finding ways around the stigma problems that afflict the discount window.