Dot plot shows widening split at the Fed

Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, noted that in the past few quarters there has been a narrowing of the gap between the 2016 forecast and the neutral level.

“In December, [ the Fed policy committee] thought it would have moved the funds rate less than half-way back to neutral by the end of 2016, and now feels that it will have moved significantly more than halfway back,” Crandall said.