The Treasury remains extremely optimistic about its near-term cash flows, which allowed it to hold the size of its 3- and 6-month bill auction down to $33 billion again

Fri, May 14, 2004

The Treasury once again kept its 3- and 6-month bill auction unchanged at $33 billion.  We had originally expected the weekly offerings to have reached $36 billion by this point in the quarter.  However, the Treasury's cash flow has been stronger than we expected, and the Treasury clearly expects that trend to continue.  The Treasury's confidence in its near-term cash flow prospects can be seen in its decision yesterday to place an additional $6 billion in a TT&L Term Investment Operation starting on Monday.  With $6 billion locked away in a TIO, our projections suggest that the Treasury won't have enough remaining cash on hand to keep its Fed account at the $5 billion target.  Needless to say, the Treasury would not have committed the funds to the TIO unless the information available to it indicated that it would have an adequate cushion in its cash balance.  It appears that there will be some more positive surprises relative to our cash balance forecast in the days ahead.