wricaplogo

Overview: Thu, March 28

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30GDPNo big revisions expected
08:30Jobless claimsLittle change expected in the latest week
09:45MNI Chicago Business BarometerMay recover a little from weak February readings
10:00U. Michigan cons. sent., lateFlat or up slightly from preliminary March level
10:00Pending home salesModerate increase expected in February
11:00Kansas City Fed indexMild decline seems likely this month
11:006-, 13- and 26-wk bill announcementCuts expected in the 6- and 13-week offerings
11:304- and 8-wk bill auction$75 billion and $80 billion respectively
14:00Recommended early close

US Economy

  • Economic Indicator Preview for Thursday, March 28, 2024

    The second revision to the Q4 GDP estimate will be published at 8:30 this morning along with the weekly jobless claims data.  The schedule also features the Chicago and Kansas City regional PMIs (at 9:45 and 11:00), the final print for this month’s University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (10:00) and the February pending home sales report (10:00).

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

Treasury Finance

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for March 25, 2024

    The distribution of FOMC rate forecasts in last week’s dot plot had a distinctly hawkish bias, but the upward drift stopped just short of implying only two rate cuts this year rather than three.  (That’s not an accident.)  Chair Powell made the case for not overreacting to disappointing inflation data of the past couple of months but did not suggest that the Fed’s patience was unlimited.  Fed policy guidance is likely to have a more cautionary tone if the next round of monthly inflation reports in the second week of February is not more encouraging.  Also, Chair Powell provided some early color on the Fed’s QT tapering debate.  The pace of portfolio runoffs will slow “fairly soon”, but the FOMC has not settled on a specific schedule yet. The QT tapering process will be guided by market signals (especially rate spreads in the overnight market) rather than by any predetermined quantity targets. 

MMO Analysis