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Overview: Fri, March 29

Daily Agenda

Time Indicator/Event Comment
08:30Advance international trade
08:30Personal consumption
11:15Daly (FOMC voter)
Gives opening remarks at SF Fed macroeconomics and policy conference
11:30Powell (FOMC voter)
Speaks at SF Fed conference
Good Friday

US Economy

Federal Reserve and the Overnight Market

This Week's MMO

  • MMO for March 25, 2024

    The distribution of FOMC rate forecasts in last week’s dot plot had a distinctly hawkish bias, but the upward drift stopped just short of implying only two rate cuts this year rather than three.  (That’s not an accident.)  Chair Powell made the case for not overreacting to disappointing inflation data of the past couple of months but did not suggest that the Fed’s patience was unlimited.  Fed policy guidance is likely to have a more cautionary tone if the next round of monthly inflation reports in the second week of February is not more encouraging.  Also, Chair Powell provided some early color on the Fed’s QT tapering debate.  The pace of portfolio runoffs will slow “fairly soon”, but the FOMC has not settled on a specific schedule yet. The QT tapering process will be guided by market signals (especially rate spreads in the overnight market) rather than by any predetermined quantity targets. 

MMO Analysis