Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
---|---|---|
08:30 | Phila. Fed mfg survey | Back to the minus column this month |
08:30 | Jobless claims | Rangebound in the latest week |
09:15 | Bowman (FOMC voter) | Takes part in SIFMA Basel III Endgame Roundtable |
09:15 | Williams (FOMC voter) | Speaks at Semafor World Economic Summit |
10:00 | Existing home sales | Partial reversal of February's jump |
10:00 | Leading indicators | 0.2% decline expected in March |
11:00 | 2-, 5-, 7-yr, and 2-yr FRN note announcement | Increases in all maturities planned |
11:00 | 6-, 13- and 26-wk bill announcement | No changes expected |
11:00 | Bostic (FOMC voter) | On the economic outlook |
11:30 | 4- and 8-wk bill auction | $70 billion and $75 billion respectively |
13:00 | 5-yr TIPS auction | $23 billion offering |
17:45 | Bostic (FOMC voter) | On the economic outlook |
Economic Indicator Preview for Thursday, April 18, 2024
The weekly jobless claims data and this month’s Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey are both due at 8:30 this morning. The March existing home sales report will come out at 10:00.
Treasury Highlights for Thursday, April 18, 2024
When Chair Powell said last month that the Fed would slow the pace of QT “fairly soon”, we initially thought that was likely to mean a shift in June rather than May. Upon reflection, we now think it is more likely that the Fed will get the runoff adjustment out of the way at next month’s meeting. That would have immediate consequences for Treasury bill issuance, as the drain on the Treasury’s cash position from Fed runoffs would ease substantially. We have tentatively added a round of modest cutbacks in short-term bill offerings to our projections for early May as a result. Of course, the bill outlook could (and probably will) evolve further over the remainder of this month as the results of the April tax season become clearer. Finally, we have a very brief follow-up to our Wednesday morning comments about debt ceiling constraints on the Treasury’s cash balance on December 31.