Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:00 | Milwaukee PMI | Down from very strong June reading |
| 08:30 | Employment cost index | Some acceleration in second quarter |
| 08:30 | Personal consumption | Only small gains in June |
| 09:00 | S&P/Case-Shiller home price index | Another solid increase likely in May |
| 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Little change in headline number |
| 10:00 | Consumer confidence | Steady at a low level in July |
| 10:15 | Fed Treasury coupon purchase | July 2018 to May 2020 maturities |
| 11:30 | 4-week bill auction | $5 billion increase to $35 billion |
| Weekly chain store surveys | Soft in late July |
Intraday Updates
[8:30 Data] The monthly pattern of consumption spending was much weaker than expected, with spending tailing off at the end of the second quarter. Real PCE is entering Q3 on essentially a flat growth path. The Q2 ECI rose even less than expected, as labor markets remain extremely soft.
[9:00 Data] The housing data remain a rare bright spot in the economic data. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rose by 0.9% in May.
[9:45 Data] The Chicago purchasing managers index was close to our expectations this morning, but the regional factory surveys (Milwaukee and Cincinnati) were disappointing.
[10:00 Data] The Conference Board's consumer confidence index was a little stronger than most other household sentiment indicators for July. more »
Economic Indicators
The market faces smorgasbord of economic data this morning. The monthly consumption and PCE price data will be released at 8:30 along with the ECI for June. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index is scheduled for 9:00, and a handful of regional factory surveys are due out over the course of the morning, led by the Chicago purchasing managers index at 9:45. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index will wrap things up at 10:00. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations The Fed will wrap up the July Operation Twist schedule with a purchase of 6- to 8-year maturities this morning, and it will announce the slate of operations for next month in the afternoon. more »
Overnight Funding Monitor Daily GCF repo forecasts more »
Treasury Finance
After raising the size of yesterday’s 3- and 6-month bill offerings by a total of $3 billion, the Treasury followed up with a $5 billion increase in the size of today’s 4-week bill auction. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Jul 30 The Fed is unlikely to announce any new balance sheet initiatives, but we expect it to fine-tune the language of its policy statement on Wednesday afternoon to re-affirm its commitment to a stimulative policy stance. The Treasury’s quarterly financing press conference on Wednesday morning is likely to include updates on the Treasury’s plans for floating rate notes as well as a timetable for allowing negative rate tenders in bill auctions. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
ICAP's Inside Debt Report for Tuesday, Jul 31 ICAP's Inside Debt provides relevant end-of-day news summaries and market sector commentary from Reuters for the FOREX, Treasuries, Corporates and Equities markets, a 3 pm EST market snapshot pricing of all market sectors from ICAP and economic data from Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press Summary Archive go »
