|08:00||Milwaukee PMI||Down from very strong June reading|
|08:30||Employment cost index||Some acceleration in second quarter|
|08:30||Personal consumption||Only small gains in June|
|09:00||S&P/Case-Shiller home price index||Another solid increase likely in May|
|09:45||Chicago PMI||Little change in headline number|
|10:00||Consumer confidence||Steady at a low level in July|
|10:15||Fed Treasury coupon purchase||July 2018 to May 2020 maturities|
|11:30||4-week bill auction||$5 billion increase to $35 billion|
|Weekly chain store surveys||Soft in late July|
[8:30 Data] The monthly pattern of consumption spending was much weaker than expected, with spending tailing off at the end of the second quarter. Real PCE is entering Q3 on essentially a flat growth path. The Q2 ECI rose even less than expected, as labor markets remain extremely soft.
[9:00 Data] The housing data remain a rare bright spot in the economic data. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rose by 0.9% in May.
[9:45 Data] The Chicago purchasing managers index was close to our expectations this morning, but the regional factory surveys (Milwaukee and Cincinnati) were disappointing.
The market faces smorgasbord of economic data this morning. The monthly consumption and PCE price data will be released at 8:30 along with the ECI for June. The S&P/Case-Shiller home price index is scheduled for 9:00, and a handful of regional factory surveys are due out over the course of the morning, led by the Chicago purchasing managers index at 9:45. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index will wrap things up at 10:00. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations The Fed will wrap up the July Operation Twist schedule with a purchase of 6- to 8-year maturities this morning, and it will announce the slate of operations for next month in the afternoon. more »
Overnight Funding Monitor Daily GCF repo forecasts more »
After raising the size of yesterday’s 3- and 6-month bill offerings by a total of $3 billion, the Treasury followed up with a $5 billion increase in the size of today’s 4-week bill auction. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Jul 30 The Fed is unlikely to announce any new balance sheet initiatives, but we expect it to fine-tune the language of its policy statement on Wednesday afternoon to re-affirm its commitment to a stimulative policy stance. The Treasury’s quarterly financing press conference on Wednesday morning is likely to include updates on the Treasury’s plans for floating rate notes as well as a timetable for allowing negative rate tenders in bill auctions. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
ICAP's Inside Debt Report for Tuesday, Jul 31 ICAP's Inside Debt provides relevant end-of-day news summaries and market sector commentary from Reuters for the FOREX, Treasuries, Corporates and Equities markets, a 3 pm EST market snapshot pricing of all market sectors from ICAP and economic data from Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
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