|07:00||MBA mortgage prch. index||Monthly averages flat since March|
|08:15||ADP national employment report||110K gain expected|
|08:30||Jobless claims||Slight drop due to technical factors|
|08:30||Continuing claims||Should be little changed|
|09:45||Fannie Mae bill auction||$2 billion in 3- and 6-month bills|
|10:00||ISM non-mfg report||Milder decline than the factory index|
|10:15||Fed Treasury coupon purchase||August 2020 to May 2022 maturities|
|11:00||3- and 6-month bill announcement||Likely unchanged|
|11:00||3-yr, 10-yr (r) and 30-yr (r) coupon announcement||Likely steady at current levels|
|Chain store sales||Seem to have slowed in June|
[8:15 Data] The ADP employment report came in 66K above our expectations, which is not enough to change our forecast for payrolls tomorrow.
[8:30 Data] Initial jobless claims were also stronger than expected this morning, but that probably says more about the outlook for July employment than tomorrow's June payroll figures.
[Chain Store Sales] Chain store sales were in line with our expectations of a modest increase, and point to a respectable gain of 0.3% in inflation-adjusted consumption spending in June.
The labor market will be the dominant theme in the economic data over the remainder of this week. Tomorrow’s monthly employment report will be the highlight, but today’s calendar also includes the ADP employment report and the weekly jobless claims data, as well as the ISM non-manufacturing survey and chain store sales for June. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations Outright operations will resume this morning with a purchase in the 8- to 10-year maturity range. more »
Overnight Funding Monitor Daily GCF repo forecasts more »
The Treasury will announce next week’s 3-, 10- and 30-year auctions along with the regular 3- and 6-month bills this morning at 11:30. We expect all of these offering sizes to remain unchanged from recent levels. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Jul 2 This week’s MMO is a follow-up to last week’s discussion of the sales component of Operation Twist 2.0. This week’s newsletter looks at the Fed’s purchases and their potential impact on market liquidity. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
ICAP's Inside Debt Report for Thursday, Jul 5 ICAP's Inside Debt provides relevant end-of-day news summaries and market sector commentary from Reuters for the FOREX, Treasuries, Corporates and Equities markets, a 3 pm EST market snapshot pricing of all market sectors from ICAP and economic data from Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
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