Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | Jobless claims | Starting to move down again -- slowly |
| 08:30 | Continuing claims | Moving sideways |
| 08:30 | Productivity | Down in the first quarter |
| 10:00 | ISM non-mfg report | Down slightly in April |
| 10:15 | Fed Treasury coupon purchase | February 2036 to February 2042 maturities |
| 11:00 | 3- and 6-month bill announcement | No changes expected |
| 11:00 | Williams (FOMC voter) | On the economy |
| 13:00 | Lockhart (FOMC voter) | On the economy |
| 13:30 | Plosser (FOMC non-voter) | On the economy |
| Chain store sales | Lackluster in April |
Intraday Updates
[8:30 Data] The seasonal uptick in initial claims in the first three weeks of April evaporated in the week of April 28. We think the latest reading of 365K is more representative of the underlying trend than the 4-week average of 384K. As expected, productivity posted its first decline since last spring, as the employment data for the first quarter were stronger than the GDP data.
[Chain Store Sales] The chain store sales data were muddied by reporting issues and holiday timing shifts. The April totals came in below forecast, but do not alter our estimates for retail sales.
[10:00 Data] The tone of the ISM non-manufacturing survey become more cautious than we had hoped in April. more »
Economic Indicators
Employment-related data will be at the heart of today’s economic calendar. Jobless claims are due at 8:30, and the employment sub-index will be the most interesting detail in the ISM non-manufacturing survey at 10:00. Other data due out today include Q1 productivity (down) and chain store sales (up sluggishly on a year-over-year basis). more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations This morning the Desk will conduct the first of this month’s seven long-bond purchases. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury will announce the size of Monday’s 3- and 6-month bills this morning at 11:00. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Apr 30 The Treasury will hold its quarterly refunding announcement this week. Despite a relatively disappointing April tax season, we expect the Treasury’s estimate of its Q2 borrowing needs to remain close to the preliminary projection of $200 billion. Our estimate of the Treasury’s Q3 borrowing requirement is $315 billion, but the Treasury’s own projection could be slightly higher. The week’s newsletter also includes a quick debt ceiling update (no problems until early 2013), and previews the Treasury’s decision on floating rate notes. We expect the Treasury to proceed with the proposal, but it is unclear whether it will be ready to finalize all of the details this week. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
ICAP's Inside Debt Report for Thursday, May 3 ICAP's Inside Debt provides relevant end-of-day news summaries and market sector commentary from Reuters for the FOREX, Treasuries, Corporates and Equities markets, a 3 pm EST market snapshot pricing of all market sectors from ICAP and economic data from Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
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