Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 07:00 | MBA mortgage prch. index | Purchase index may finally level out |
| 08:30 | GDP | Q4 revised down modestly |
| 09:30 | Fisher (FOMC non-voter) | On the economy |
| 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Flat in February |
| 09:45 | Fannie Mae bill auction | $0.50 billion in 3- and 6-month bills |
| 10:00 | Bernanke | Semi-annual monetary policy report |
| 10:00 | Milwaukee PMI | Flat in February |
| 10:15 | Fed Treasury coupon purchase | February 2036 to February 2042 maturities |
| 13:00 | Plosser (FOMC non-voter) | On the economy |
| 14:00 | Beige book | Reasonably upbeat |
| 16:00 | Annual TIC report on foreign holdings of U.S. securities | Preliminary benchmark report as of June 2011 |
Intraday Updates
[8:30 Data] The Q4 GDP report was stronger than expected in several respects. In addition to a faster GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department reported a higher PCE inflation rate for the fourth quarter and a much stronger gain in personal income for the third quarter.
[9:45 Data] The Chicago purchasing managers survey was stronger than expected in February.
[Bernanke] Chairman Bernanke did not offer any hints about the possibility of new asset purchases in his prepared testimony. He stuck to the FOMC's January views about inflation trends, which are slightly out of date in light of recent trends in gasoline prices and this morning's revisions to the PCE price index. more »
Economic Indicators
The first revision to Q4 GDP is due at 8:30 this morning, followed by the final round of major regional factory surveys for February, including the Chicago purchasing managers survey at 9:45. The Fed will publish the beige book for the March FOMC meeting at 2:00 this afternoon. more »
Fed Policy
Like most market participants, we doubt that the Fed’s asset-purchase debate has progressed far enough for Chairman Bernanke to offer any more specific guidance than he has already about the potential for future operations. We doubt that the strength in the economic data in recent weeks will affect his tone greatly, but we will be interested to see how he handles the question of how higher energy costs will affect the monetary policy outlook. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations The operation calendar is packed today. The Desk will conduct a long-bond purchase in the morning and release the Operation Twist schedule for March at around 2:00 this afternoon. The Fed also announced yesterday that, starting today, it would resume conducting small-scale reverse RPs as part of its operational readiness efforts. Also of note are this month's 84-day foreign central bank dollar liquidity auctions, which will take place before the U.S. markets open. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
Treasury cash flows table more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Feb 27 Chairman Bernanke will deliver the Fed’s semi-annual report to Congress on Wednesday. We think it is too early in the debate over more asset purchases for the Chairman to do more than say that they remain on the table. This week’s MMO discusses a pair of other issues that might surface in the Q&A portion of the hearing: the implications of the run-up in fuel prices for Fed policy, and the Fed’s view (if any) on recent calls for an extension of the temporary unlimited FDIC coverage for non-interest-bearing transactions accounts. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Wednesday, Feb 29 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
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