Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 07:00 | MBA mortgage prch. index | Upturn in the final week of January |
| 08:00 | Milwaukee PMI | Close to recent strong levels |
| 08:15 | ADP national employment report | Out of sync with payrolls lately |
| 08:30 | Plosser (FOMC non-voter) | On the economy |
| 09:00 | Tsy quarterly refunding announcement | Unchanged offering sizes for the February refunding |
| 09:45 | Fannie Mae bill auction | $1.5 billion in 3- and 6-month bills |
| 10:00 | ISM factory report | Climbing more than one point to 54.5 |
| 10:00 | Construction spending | Up again in December |
| 10:00 | Treasury press conference webcast | http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/Video-Audio-Webcasts/Pages/Webcasts.aspx |
| 10:00 | Business employment dynamics | Job flows soft in the second quarter of last year |
| 10:15 | Fed Treasury coupon purchase | August 2022 to February 2031 maturities |
| Dom & imp. auto sales | Small increase in seasonally adjusted terms | |
| Fannie Mae note announcement | Monthly scheduled announcement |
Intraday Updates
[8:15 Data] There were no material surprises in the ADP employment report.
[Treasury Refunding] There were no major surprises in the quarterly Treasury financing announcement. Nominal coupon auction sizes will remain unchanged for the foreseeable future, while TIPS sizes will continue to rise.
[10:00 Data] The ISM manufacturing index did not rise quite as much as expected in January, but the orders index was encouraging and the price index turned up. The upside surprise in December construction spending will add a couple of tenths of a percent to the Commerce Department's Q4 GDP estimate.
[Auto Sales] Auto sales are coming in slightly below expectations. Our current projected SAAR for cars is 4.7 million units and for trucks is 5.8 million units. more »
Economic Indicators
The ISM factory survey at 10:00 and auto sales this afternoon are the highlights of today’s calendar. The schedule also includes the ADP employment report at 8:15 and construction spending at 10:00. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations The February maturity extension program schedule announced yesterday afternoon includes two more operations than we had originally expected. The current monthly cycle will start this morning with a purchase covering the 10- to 20-year maturity sector. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury will hold its quarterly refunding press conference at 9:00 this morning. The refunding package itself will almost certainly be unchanged at $72 billion, which would raise $22 billion of new cash when the issues settle on February 15. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Jan 30 One of the lessons from last week’s FOMC statement is that more information doesn’t always result in greater clarity. The inclusion of explicit rate forecasts in the FOMC’s quarterly economic projections was supposed to make the policy process more transparent, but the FOMC in the end decided that the market would need some help from the policy statement to interpret the new information correctly. We cannot be sure at this point exactly why the Fed was reluctant to allow the data to speak for themselves, but it is possible that the FOMC was conscious of the limitations of consensus-style surveys as a gauge of collective expectations. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Wednesday, Feb 1 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
