Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | Employment cost index | Still stuck at a very slow growth rate |
| 09:00 | S&P/Case-Shiller home price index | Still fallling |
| 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Close to recent strong levels |
| 10:00 | Consumer confidence | Another large increase |
| 10:00 | ISM seasonal factor revisions | 2011 levels to undergo small revisions |
| 10:15 | Fed Treasury coupon purchase | February 2036 to November 2041 maturities |
| 11:30 | 4-week bill auction | A $3 billion increase to $33 billion |
| 14:00 | Outright operation schedule announcement | Maturity extension program operation schedule for February |
| Weekly chain store surveys | Subdued in January |
Intraday Updates
[8:30 Data] The employment cost index remained extremely soft in the fourth quarter, and continues to show signs of surplus capacity in the labor market.
[9:00 Data] Home price trends as measured by the S&P/Case-Shiller index were even weaker than expected in November.
[9:45 Data] The Chicago purchasing managers index fell slightly in ISM-weighted terms, bringing down the average increase in the regional surveys for January.
[10:00 Data] The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence failed to keep pace with the rest of the consumer sentiment data in January. The underlying trend in the sentiment data in general continues to look strong.
[ISM Revisions] The annual seasonal factor revisions to the ISM factory index pulled our forecast for tomorrow's number back down to 54.5. more »
Economic Indicators
Today’s economic calendar is crowded, but many of the entries are second-tier indicators as far as the market is concerned. The schedule leads off with the employment cost index at 8:30, which will be followed by the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index and the final major wave of regional purchasing managers surveys for January. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations The Fed faces a busy schedule today. The final January operation (a purchase in the 20- to 30-year sector) will take place this morning, and the Operation Twist calendar for February will be announced in the afternoon at around 2 p.m. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury’s updated borrowing projection for the first quarter was much less pessimistic than its November forecast, but remains somewhat gloomier than our expectations. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Jan 30 One of the lessons from last week’s FOMC statement is that more information doesn’t always result in greater clarity. The inclusion of explicit rate forecasts in the FOMC’s quarterly economic projections was supposed to make the policy process more transparent, but the FOMC in the end decided that the market would need some help from the policy statement to interpret the new information correctly. We cannot be sure at this point exactly why the Fed was reluctant to allow the data to speak for themselves, but it is possible that the FOMC was conscious of the limitations of consensus-style surveys as a gauge of collective expectations. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Tuesday, Jan 31 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
