Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | Personal consumption | Real spending probably fell in December |
| 08:30 | Freddie Mac bill auction | Weekly bill auction announcement |
| 10:15 | Fed Treasury coupon purchase | February 2020 to November 2021 maturities |
| 10:30 | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey | Minimal increase expected |
| 11:00 | 4-week bill announcement | Likely steady at $30 billion |
| 11:30 | 3- and 6-month bill auction | $2 billion increase in each maturity |
| 15:00 | Tsy financing estimates | Q1 needs may be lower than expected in November |
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Jan 30 One of the lessons from last week’s FOMC statement is that more information doesn’t always result in greater clarity. The inclusion of explicit rate forecasts in the FOMC’s quarterly economic projections was supposed to make the policy process more transparent, but the FOMC in the end decided that the market would need some help from the policy statement to interpret the new information correctly. We cannot be sure at this point exactly why the Fed was reluctant to allow the data to speak for themselves, but it is possible that the FOMC was conscious of the limitations of consensus-style surveys as a gauge of collective expectations. more »
Intraday Updates
[8:30 Data] The December consumption and PCE price index data were in line with expectations.
[10:30 Data] The regional factory surveys continue to outperform our expectations in January.
Treasury Borrowing Requirements] The Treasury's Q1 borrowing estimate came down sharply from the November forecast, but remains somewhat more pessmistic than our projection. more »
Economic Indicators
The economic calendar is exceptionally full this week. Today’s schedule includes the PCE and PCE prices report for December as well as the Dallas Fed regional factory survey. The highlights for the rest of the week include the national ISM factory survey and auto sales on Wednesday and the employment report on Friday. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations There are two operations remaining on the January Operation Twist calendar: a purchase in the 8- to 10-year maturity range today and another covering the 20- to 30-year sector tomorrow. The schedule for the upcoming February cycle will be announced tomorrow afternoon. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury will kick off the quarterly refunding process this afternoon at 3:00 with the release of its Q1 and Q2 borrowing projections. We expect the Q1 figure to be considerably lower than the $541 billion preliminary projection released in November. The Treasury will also sell $60 billion of 3- and 6-month bills and announce the terms of tomorrow’s 4-week bill this morning. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Monday, Jan 30 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
