Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | Jobless claims | Partial reversal of last week's improvement |
| 08:30 | Continuing claims | Partial reversal of last week's improvement |
| 08:30 | Durable goods | Another positive contribution from aircraft |
| 08:30 | Chicago Fed NAI | Above trend in December |
| 09:45 | Chicago PMI annual revisions | December might be revised down slightly due to new seasonals |
| 10:00 | Leading indicators | Solid increase, new format |
| 10:00 | New home sales | Perking up, but at a very low level |
| 10:15 | Fed Treasury coupon purchase | February 2036 to November 2041 maturities |
| 11:00 | 3- and 6-month bill announcement | Another unchanged offering likely |
| 11:00 | Kansas City Fed index | Slight improvement |
| 13:00 | 7-yr note auction | Steady at $29 billion |
| Freddie Mac note announcement | Monthly scheduled announcement |
Intraday Updates
[8:30 Data] The headline number in the durables report was in line with our expectations, but the composition was even stronger than we had hoped. Jobless claims were broadly in line with our forecast, and did not provide much new information. As expected, the Chicago Fed's national tracking index signalled above-trend growth in December.
[10:00 Data] New home sales fell short of expectations in December, but is likely to rebound in the first quarter. The index of leading economic indicators rose less than expected, as the new consumer expectations component was weaker than we had anticipated.
[11:00 Data] Like the Empire State and Richmond Fed reports, the Kansas City Fed survey was stronger than expected in January. more »
Economic Indicators
The market faces a full slate of data today. Durable goods, jobless claims and the Chicago Fed national activity index are due at 8:30, and will be followed by new home sales, leading indicators and the Kansas City Fed factory survey later in the morning. more »
Fed Policy
The FOMC’s rate-hike forecasts turned out to be less dovish than expected, but Bernanke preempted the new forecasts at 2:00 by imposing a surprisingly market-friendly tone on the policy statement at 12:30. In his press conference, he repeatedly noted that the option of more asset purchases remains on the table, and that the minutes of this meeting on February 15 will discuss that option further. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations The Fed will resume its outright operations this morning with a purchase targeting the longer half of the Treasury bond sector. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury will announce next week’s 3- and 6-month bills at 11:00 this morning and will sell $29 billion of 7-year notes this afternoon at 1:00. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Jan 23 The Fed cleared up much of the uncertainty about the format of its new policy projections on Friday by publishing a template for the charts that will be added to its projections package on Wednesday this week. Rate expectations will be expressed in terms of year-end values rather than fourth quarter averages, and FOMC members’ forecasts for the timing of the first rate hike will be lumped together by year. There was no mention of the “narrative” with “qualitative information” about the FOMC’s balance sheet expectations, which suggests that we will have to wait until the minutes are released on February 15 to learn more about the Fed’s balance sheet plans. (Chairman Bernanke may provide some hints in his press conference.) The fate of the “mid-2013” guidance remains a major uncertainty. We think the Fed is likely to remove any specific calendar references from the statement this week, but market opinions appear to vary on that subject. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Thursday, Jan 26 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
