Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | PPI | Surge in energy prices, modest core |
| 08:30 | Jobless claims | Partial reversal of last week's improvement? |
| 08:30 | Continuing claims | Little change in early September |
| 08:30 | US current account | Wider in Q2 |
| 09:00 | Tsy intl cap flows | Foreign demand for Treasuries likely very strong in July |
| 09:30 | Duke (FOMC voter) | At public hearing at FRB Chicago |
| 10:00 | Phila. Fed mfg survey | Tepid recovery in September after very weak August |
| 10:15 | Fed Treasury coupon purchase | March 2012 to February 2013 maturities |
| 11:00 | 3- and 6-month and year-bill announcement | No changes expected |
Intraday Updates
[8:30 Data] The improvement in jobless claims needs to be treated cautiously, as claims data for holiday weeks are notoriously unreliable. However, the direction in both initial and continuing claims is encouraging. The PPI report was more moderate than we expected on a couple of levels: food and energy prices were softer than anticipated in the finished goods index, and the core intermediate goods index rose less than expected.
[10:00 Data] The details of the Philadelphia Fed's regional factory survey remained very soft in September. more »
Economic Indicators
The highlights of today’s economic calendar are the weekly jobless claims report and the PPI at 8:30, and the Philadelphia Fed’s factory survey at 10:00. Aside from the energy component of the PPI, we don’t expect to see many signs of strength in these reports. As always, though, the claims data are a wild card – especially in a week that includes a holiday. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations This afternoon’s weekly banking data will almost certainly show a large pop in the Fed’s custody holdings of Treasury debt on Wednesday, but the increase will have nothing to do with the renewed forex intervention campaign by the Japanese authorities. We think the proceeds of the Japanese intervention campaign are likely to find their way into bank deposits first. The implications for the near-term trend in overnight rates are ambiguous.
Also, the Fed will hold another Treasury reinvestment operation today. We expect it to buy up to $1.4 billion of 1 ½- to 2 ½-year Treasuries. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury will announce the terms of next week’s 13-, 26- and 52-week bills this morning at 11:00. There is not much reason to expect any changes in the sizes of these auctions. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Sep 13 The TIPS market got a lift at the end of the week from reports that the major benchmark indexes might be expanded to include inflation-indexed bonds. The prospects for the inclusion of TIPS are uncertain, as is the likely timeframe for any such change. If TIPS are eventually added to the index, it is likely that the index managers would take care to minimize any disruptions for index end-users in making the transition. At the margin, the inclusion of real return bonds in the major indexes might make the Treasury even more ambitious in its planned expansion of 5-year TIPS issuance in 2011. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Thursday, Sep 16 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
