Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | Personal consumption | Solid 0.2% gain in real PCE in June |
| 10:00 | Factory orders | Essentially flat |
| 10:00 | Pending home sales | One last decline? |
| 11:30 | 4-week bill auction | An unchanged $31 billion offering |
| 17:00 | ABC consumer comfort index | Range-bound all year |
| Dom & imp. auto sales | Moderate increase | |
| Fannie Mae note announcement | Monthly scheduled announcement | |
| Weekly chain store surveys | Sluggish in late July |
Intraday Updates
[8:30 Data] Personal consumption spending and core inflation both ended the second quarter on a softer note than we anticipated.
[10:00 Data] The factory orders report was weaker than expected in several respects, and lowers our expectations for GDP. Pending home sales were not quite as weak as we had anticipated, and are probably close to their floor for the year.
July auto sales came in close to forecast. Based on estimated seasonal factors, our final projected SAAR for cars is 3.8 million units and for trucks is 4.9 million units. more »
Economic Indicators
The market faces a busy data calendar today. The personal income and consumption report will include the month-by-month details of the annual revisions that were released on Friday as well as the new June figures. Pending home sales are likely to be very weak again this month, while the main point of interest in the factory orders report will be whether or not the soft durables data for June are revised up. After lunch, the July sales figures released by the major auto makers are likely to show increases in both year-over-year and month-over-month terms, but the extent of those revisions is uncertain. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations Excess reserve forecast tables more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury’s official borrowing projection for the current quarter was much lower than our forecast. It is too early to say whether that will translate into significantly smaller bill sizes in the coming weeks. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Aug 2 This week’s newsletter is a follow-up to last week’s discussion of the federal government’s borrowing needs in FY 2011. We expect the Treasury’s quarterly financing estimates on Monday afternoon to suggest that borrowing in the current quarter will be close to last year’s level, but that borrowing in the October-December period will be significantly above the year-ago level. This week’s issue also discusses prospective changes in the Treasury’s debt service cash-flow patterns in the coming quarters, which will sharply reduce the importance of the month-end note packages as a source of new cash for the government by early next year. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Tuesday, Aug 3 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
