Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 09:45 | Freddie Mac bill auction | $4 billion in 3- and 6-month bills |
| 10:00 | ISM factory report | Still solid, but down from June |
| 10:00 | Construction spending | Down 0.5% in June |
| 10:15 | Bernanke on the economy and challenges facing state govts | At the Southern Legislative Conference |
| 11:00 | 4-week and 8-week SFP bill announcement | No changes expected |
| 11:30 | 3- and 6-month bill auction | 5th consecutive $60 billion offering |
| 15:00 | Tsy financing estimates | $390 billion this quarter, $365 billion in Q4 |
| 16:00 | Geithner | On financial reform |
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Aug 2 This week’s newsletter is a follow-up to last week’s discussion of the federal government’s borrowing needs in FY 2011. We expect the Treasury’s quarterly financing estimates on Monday afternoon to suggest that borrowing in the current quarter will be close to last year’s level, but that borrowing in the October-December period will be significantly above the year-ago level. This week’s issue also discusses prospective changes in the Treasury’s debt service cash-flow patterns in the coming quarters, which will sharply reduce the importance of the month-end note packages as a source of new cash for the government by early next year. more »
Intraday Updates
[10:00 Data] The headline index in the ISM factory survey was a bit stronger than we expected, but the details were no better than expected. A 4.4-point pop in the inventory index saved the composite index from a steeper fall. Similarly, the details of the construction spending report were softer than the headline increase of 0.1% might suggest. Downward revisions to prior month left the June level lower than we had anticipated.
[3:00 Data] The Treasury's estimate of its borrowing requirement for the current quarter is considerably more optimistic than ours. In light of the smaller projected borrowing requirement, we no longer expect the 3- and 6-month bill offering sizes to rise later this month. more »
Economic Indicators
This week’s calendar is dominated by the familiar turn-of-the-month bookends: ISM factory index today and employment on Friday. Other major items include auto sales tomorrow and the ISM non-manufacturing survey on Wednesday. Today’s schedule also includes construction spending for June. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations Excess reserve forecast table more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
We expect the Treasury to announce an unchanged $31 billion 4-week bill to go with this morning's unchanged $60 billion 3- and 6-month bill sale. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Monday, Aug 2 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
