Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 08:30 | Employment cost index | Stuck at low levels |
| 08:30 | GDP | 2.5% in Q2, annual revisions also due |
| 09:45 | Chicago PMI | Auto sector may provide a small lift |
| 09:55 | U. Michigan cons. sent., late | Slightly better than the early-July reading |
| 10:00 | Milwaukee PMI | Modest pullback from very high June reading |
Intraday Updates
[8:30 Data] The headline GDP number was close to our expectations, but only due to a mass of offsetting errors. Real domestic demand was far stronger than we expected in the second quarter, but the main result of the acceleration in spending was an increase in the trade deficit -- at least as far as these preliminary estimates are concerned. The Q1 trough in the core PCE price index was revised up markedly, but that was offset by a lower core inflation rate in the second quarter than we anticipated. Separately, the ECI was in line with expectations of very mild nominal wage gains.
[10:00 Data] This morning's regional factory surveys were stronger than expected, leading us to nudge our ISM forecast for July up slightly. The Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index was slightly less dire than the early-July figure, as expected. more »
Economic Indicators
This morning’s economic calendar is unusually crowded. GDP and the ECI are due out at 8:30, followed by the Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index and several regional factory surveys, including the Chicago purchasing managers index at 9:45. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Fed Data As of the latest quarterly revaluation, all three of the Fed’s Maiden Lane funds are above water. Foreign central banks remained eager buyers of Treasuries in the latest week, and dealers appear to be making modest progress in working off their MBS delivery backlogs this month. more »
Treasury Finance
Treasury cash flows table more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Jul 26 The Treasury will hold its quarterly financing meetings with dealers this week in preparation for the August refunding. The government’s borrowing outlook is extraordinarily uncertain at present for a variety of reasons, ranging from soft-patch concerns about the economy to the fact that nobody has a clue what the tax code will look like on January 1. The possible termination of the Supplementary Financing Program early next year is an additional complication, as the debt managers would like to ensure that the financial system has access to an adequate supply of Treasury bills. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Thursday, Jul 29 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
