Daily Summary

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for Thursday, March 18, 2010

Agenda

TimeIndicator/EventComment
07:30Duke (FOMC voter)At American Bankers Association Government Relations Summit
08:30CPI0.1% gains in both total and core
08:30Jobless claimsA lull between storms
08:30Continuing claimsRoughly flat
08:30US current accountAnother widening in the fourth quarter
09:00Hoenig, Lacker & Pianalto At American Bankers Association Government Relations Summit
10:00Leading indicatorsAnother small increase
10:00Phila. Fed mfg surveySteady at a healthy level
11:002-, 5- and 7-yr note announcementNo changes expected
11:003- and 6-month bill announcementLikely steady at $27 and $29 billion

Intraday Updates

[8:30 Releases]  The overall CPI was unchanged in February, while the core index just barely rounded up to 0.1%.  The jobless claims data were mildly disappointing, as initial claims and total federal benefits were both modestly above our forecast.

[10:00 Release]   The unofficial ISM-equivalent index derived from the Philadelphia Fed's factory survey was mildly disappointing, but regional factory conditions appear strong nevertheless. more »

Economic Indicators

The economic calendar will wrap up early this week, as no major indicators are scheduled to be released tomorrow.  The marquee item is the CPI at 8:30, which is expected to be moderate.  Other indicators include jobless claims at 8:30 and the Philadelphia Fed factory survey and the index of leading indicators at 10:00. more »

Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market

Fed Open Market Operations Excess reserve forecast tables more »

Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »

Treasury Finance

The Treasury is due to announce the terms of next week's 3- and 6-month bills and 2-, 5- and 7-year notes this morning at 11:00. We expect the offering sizes in all five maturities to be unchanged. more »

The Money Market Observer

Monday, Mar 15 In a close call, we think the Fed is likely to retain the “extended period” language in the policy statement released after Tuesday’s FOMC meeting.  That rate guidance will have to be softened soon, but the Fed has done little to lay the groundwork for a shift in the tone of the statement in recent weeks.  If there are no major changes to the statement, we are likely to see at least one dissenting vote on Tuesday, and perhaps two. more »

Daily Press Summary (pdf)

Inside Debt Daily for Thursday, Mar 18 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »

Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »

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