Agenda
| Time | Indicator/Event | Comment |
| 07:00 | MBA mortgage prch. index | Snow didn't help |
| 08:30 | CPI revisions | Seasonal factor revisions |
| 08:30 | Housing starts | Starts likely to move up modestly due to improved permits |
| 08:30 | Import prices | Big jump in energy |
| 09:15 | Industrial production | Large increase, strong composition |
| 09:45 | Fannie Mae bill auction | $4 billion 2-part auction |
| 11:30 | 4-week bill auction | $8 billion increase to $32 billion |
| 12:45 | Plosser (FOMC non-voter) | On the financial crisis |
| 14:00 | FOMC minutes | Exit strategy preferences beginning to gel |
| 14:00 | US budget | CBO projects a $46 billion deficit |
| FHLB note announcement | Monthly scheduled announcement | |
| Weekly chain store surveys | Snow didn't help |
Intraday Updates
[8:30 Releases] Housing starts failed to rise by as much as we expected, but the overall trend in permits remains positive (in relative terms). Core import prices were in line with recent trends, but energy and food prices were stronger than expected in January.
[9:15 Release] January industrial production was in line with expectations for a strong report.
[2:00 Release] The FOMC flip-flopped again on the question of asset sales. In November, "several" participants thought open market sales of MBS would be useful tools. In December, only "one" member favored asset sales, while a "few" speculated about the possibility of renewed asset purchases. In today's January minutes, we are back to "several" proponents of early sales. Bernanke, though, was not one of them. He used his exit strategy testimony last week to downplay the idea. more »
Economic Indicators
This morning’s calendar features housing starts and import prices at 8:30, followed by industrial production at 9:15. more »
Fed Policy
This afternoon’s FOMC minutes may give us a little more color about KC Fed President Hoenig’s decision to dissent at the January meeting. Other themes of interest include the ongoing discussion about the Fed’s exit strategy as well as the FOMC’s latest internal survey of growth and inflation forecasts. more »
Federal Reserve Operations & the Overnight Market
Fed Open Market Operations The Desk may choose to announce the terms of this week's agency coupon pass today. more »
Fed Funds Monitor Fed funds data tables more »
Treasury Finance
The Treasury will sell $32 billion of 4-week bills today, which represents an $8 billion increase from last week’s level. more »
The Money Market Observer
Monday, Feb 15 Economic developments ultimately will determine how the Fed’s exit strategy will play out, but some of the Fed’s technical preferences began to take shape in Chairman Bernanke’s testimony last week. He laid out a baseline scenario in which the Fed would introduce the remainder of is new tools on a trial basis, and then ramp up the scale of its draining operations when the time for a rate hike drew near. The goal would be to push the funds rate back to the ceiling of the Fed’s target range before formally tightening. If the Fed were unable to drain enough reserves before the first rate hike, the Fed might adopt the interest rate paid on reserves as its policy reference rate on a temporary basis, while simultaneously specifying a timetable for getting the level of excess reserves back to lower levels. Bernanke also discussed the option of Treasury redemptions as a draining tool, and warned that the discount rate was likely to rise “before long”. more »
Daily Press Summary (pdf)
Inside Debt Daily for Wednesday, Feb 17 The Inside Debt Daily provides relevant market news and market segment commentary from Thomson Reuters and data from ICAP and Wrightson ICAP in a take-home, easy-to-read format highlighting key developments which could impact the capital markets the ensuing trading day. Download a PDF file of the most recent report now. go »
Daily Press and Pricing Archive go »
